Iran war plan links Ahmadinejad, collapse risk

What's happened

The Times of Israel reports that an Israeli-developed, multistage plan to remove Iran’s leadership during the war has left Ahmadinejad wounded but alive and missing; US-Israeli operations aimed at destabilizing Tehran have not yet produced a government replacement.

What's behind the headline?

Key takeaways

• The Times of Israel cites US officials describing a multiphase plan that includes installing an alternative leadership after Khamenei’s death or removal. Ahmadinejad’s involvement is described as consultative.
• Reports suggest the strike on Ahmadinejad’s residence was part of a broader strategy, but his current whereabouts are unknown and control within Iran appears fragmented.
• Critics question whether such scenarios ever translated into policy, noting the operational and political risks of attempting regime change during wartime.
• The potential implications for regional stability and for Western strategy in the war will depend on whether an alternative government emerges and how Tehran responds to leadership vacuums.

How we got here

The plan described in US briefings envisages an initial US-Israeli aerial campaign killing senior Iranian officials and unsettling the regime, followed by an “alternative government” taking charge. Ahmadinejad has been consulted but was wounded in an Israeli strike and has not appeared publicly since. The war has involved cross-border hostilities and a block on Hormuz, with ongoing questions about leadership succession in Iran.

Our analysis

The Times of Israel (May 20-25, 2026) provides the central account, with corroborating or contrasting perspectives from The Independent and The NY Post about Ahmadinejad’s status and the plausibility of the plan.

Go deeper

• What does this mean for the war’s trajectory in the next weeks?
• How are Iran’s leadership dynamics evolving according to different outlets?
• What are the risks of attempting to install a successor who does not command broad legitimacy?

More on these topics

• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - Former President of Iran

  Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, born Mahmoud Sabbaghian, is an Iranian politician who served as the sixth President of Iran from 2005 to 2013.

• Donald Trump - 45th and 47th U.S. President

  Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.

• Ali Khamenei - Supreme Leader of Iran

  Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei is a Twelver Shia Marja' and the second and current supreme leader of Iran, in office since 1989. He was previously the president of Iran from 1981 to 1989.

• White House - Official residence and office of the President of the United States

  The White House is the official residence and workplace of the president of the United States. Located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington, D.C., it has served as the residence of every U.S. president since John Adams in 1800 when the national...

• Masoud Pezeshkian - Member of Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran

  Masoud Pezeshkian is an Iranian heart surgeon and reformist politician of Azerbaijani and Kurdish descent who is currently President-elect of Iran.

• The Times of Israel - Website

  The Times of Israel is an Israel-based, primarily English-language online newspaper launched in 2012. It was co-founded by journalist David Horovitz, who is also the founding editor, and American hedge fund manager Seth Klarman.