What's happened
On October 26, 2025, at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, US President Donald Trump co-signed a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia to end deadly border clashes. The deal includes military de-escalation, removal of heavy weapons, prisoner release, and ASEAN observer deployment. Despite the truce, core territorial disputes remain unresolved, and tensions persist amid trade negotiations and regional diplomacy.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Diplomacy and Trade Leverage
The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, co-signed by US President Donald Trump, is as much a diplomatic and economic maneuver as a peace effort. Trump's administration leveraged trade tariffs and agreements to pressure both countries into halting hostilities, rewarding them with reduced tariffs and new trade deals on critical minerals and goods. This underscores a broader US strategy to reassert influence in Southeast Asia amid rising Chinese economic presence.
Symbolism vs. Substance
While the Kuala Lumpur Accords mark a formal commitment to peace, analysts caution that the deal is largely symbolic. The core territorial disputes, rooted in colonial-era demarcations and unresolved by the agreement, continue to fuel mistrust and sporadic ceasefire violations. The deployment of ASEAN observers and removal of heavy weapons are positive steps but insufficient to guarantee lasting peace.
Regional and Global Implications
The agreement places ASEAN and its chair Malaysia in a delicate position, balancing relations with the US and China. Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim must navigate this geopolitical tightrope, as Trump's insistence on sidelining Chinese diplomats at the signing risks straining Malaysia-China ties. The deal also reflects ASEAN's challenges in managing internal conflicts through consensus amid diverse member interests.
Forecast
The ceasefire will likely hold in the short term due to international oversight and economic incentives. However, without addressing the underlying territorial disputes and fostering genuine reconciliation, the risk of renewed clashes remains. ASEAN's cohesion and ability to enforce agreements will be tested, especially as the Philippines prepares to assume the chairmanship in 2026. The US will continue to use trade and diplomatic tools to influence regional stability, but sustainable peace requires deeper bilateral engagement between Thailand and Cambodia.
What the papers say
The South China Morning Post highlights ASEAN's ongoing struggle with Myanmar's political crisis, contrasting with the Thai-Cambodia ceasefire focus, noting ASEAN's reliance on consensus and diplomatic engagement. Al Jazeera provides detailed coverage of the ceasefire signing, quoting leaders like Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul calling it a "monumental step" and Cambodian PM Hun Manet describing it as a "historic day," while also noting the agreement's limitations and the need for further peace efforts. Gulf News emphasizes Trump's role in brokering the ceasefire and securing trade deals, with skepticism from analysts like Khoo Ying Hooi who describe the deal as "more symbolic than substantive." The Times of Israel and South China Morning Post discuss the broader geopolitical context, including Trump's strategic use of trade tariffs and the delicate balance Malaysia must maintain between US and Chinese interests. SBS and Al Jazeera also note the humanitarian aspects, such as prisoner releases and landmine removal, while cautioning that the core territorial dispute remains unresolved. Together, these sources paint a picture of a complex, multifaceted peace effort driven by economic leverage, regional diplomacy, and ongoing geopolitical competition.
How we got here
Thailand and Cambodia have long disputed their 800km border, with clashes erupting in July 2025 causing dozens of deaths and displacing hundreds of thousands. The July truce, brokered partly through Trump's trade leverage, led to the October ceasefire signing at the ASEAN summit. The agreement aims to stabilize the border, but underlying territorial claims remain contested.
Go deeper
- What are the main points of the Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire agreement?
- How did US President Trump influence the peace deal?
- What challenges remain after the ceasefire signing?
Common question
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Cambodia, officially the Kingdom of Cambodia, is a country located in the southern portion of the Indochina peninsula in Southeast Asia.
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