What's happened
On September 7, 2025, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned following historic electoral defeats that left the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) without a majority in both parliamentary houses. His resignation triggers a leadership race expected in early October to select his successor amid internal party divisions, economic challenges, and rising regional security tensions.
What's behind the headline?
Political Instability and Leadership Vacuum
Ishiba’s resignation after less than a year in office underscores deep political instability in Japan. The LDP’s loss of majority control in both houses for the first time since 1955 signals a shift away from decades of dominance, forcing the party to navigate coalition politics and opposition demands.
Internal Party Divisions
The leadership contest will pit centrists like Toshimitsu Motegi and Shinjiro Koizumi against ultraconservatives such as Sanae Takaichi, whose hawkish stance on China and economic policies could unsettle markets. The party’s fractured state reflects broader ideological divides, with concerns that a shift to the far-right could exacerbate domestic and foreign policy tensions.
Regional Security and Foreign Relations
The new leader will inherit complex challenges including strained China-Japan relations, North Korean threats, and pressure from the US on defense spending and trade. Analysts predict continuity in viewing China as a strategic competitor, though tactical approaches may vary between candidates.
Economic and Social Challenges
Ishiba’s tenure saw a landmark trade deal with the US reducing tariffs on Japanese cars, but rising living costs and inflation fueled voter discontent. The successor must balance economic stimulus with fiscal discipline amid demographic decline and growing populist movements.
Forecast
The October leadership race will be pivotal. The winner faces the daunting task of restoring party unity, managing coalition dynamics, and addressing voter concerns. A snap general election may follow to seek a fresh mandate, but public opposition to early polls complicates this path. Japan’s political landscape is entering a more pluralistic and uncertain era, with significant implications for domestic governance and regional stability.
What the papers say
Michael MacArthur Bosack in The Japan Times highlights Ishiba’s resignation as a response to three consecutive electoral defeats, noting the party’s need to elect a new leader who will likely become prime minister. The South China Morning Post provides insight into Ishiba’s nuanced stance on Japan’s wartime history, quoting critics like Yoichi Shimada who warn that Ishiba’s views may deepen party divisions and complicate relations with China. The same source also details internal party debates over Ishiba’s planned statements on war remorse and the political risks involved.
AP News and SBS emphasize the political instability following Ishiba’s resignation, describing the leadership race and the challenges facing his successor, including coalition-building and economic pressures. SBS also notes market nervousness about potential policy shifts depending on the new leader, contrasting the moderate approach of Shinjiro Koizumi with the more expansionary stance of Sanae Takaichi.
Bloomberg and South China Morning Post provide analysis on the implications for Japan-China relations, with experts like Xu Weijun and Zhang Yun predicting continued strategic competition and limited policy flexibility for the new prime minister. They also discuss the potential impact of rising nationalist forces within Japan’s politics.
Together, these sources paint a picture of a party and country at a crossroads, balancing historical reckoning, economic challenges, and geopolitical tensions as they prepare for a critical leadership transition.
How we got here
Ishiba became prime minister in October 2024 but faced mounting pressure after the LDP lost its parliamentary majority in July’s Upper House election and subsequent polls. His tenure was marked by efforts to finalize a US-Japan trade deal and calls to address Japan’s wartime history, but internal party rifts and voter dissatisfaction over economic issues intensified demands for his resignation.
Go deeper
- Who are the main candidates to replace Ishiba as LDP leader?
- What challenges will the new Japanese prime minister face?
- How might Ishiba’s resignation affect Japan-China relations?
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More on these topics
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Shigeru Ishiba is a Japanese politician. Ishiba is a member of the Liberal Democratic Party and of Heisei-Kenkyukai until 2011.
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The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, frequently abbreviated to LDP or Jimintō, is a conservative political party in Japan.
The LDP has almost continuously been in power since its foundation in 1955—a period called the 1955 System—with the exception
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Sanae Takaichi is a conservative Japanese politician.
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Japan is an island country of East Asia in the northwest Pacific Ocean. It borders the Sea of Japan to the west and extends from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south.
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The United Nations General Assembly is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations, serving as the main deliberative, policy-making, and representative organ of the UN.