What's happened
Tropical Storm Alvin, located 670 miles south-southeast of Baja California, has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving northwest. The storm is expected to strengthen before weakening by Friday. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, with forecasts predicting an above-average season.
What's behind the headline?
Current Situation
- Tropical Storm Alvin is currently positioned in the eastern North Pacific, with expectations of strengthening before a subsequent weakening.
Implications for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
- The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be above average, with forecasters anticipating 13 to 19 named storms. This follows a notably destructive 2024 season, which was the third-costliest on record.
Factors Influencing the Forecast
- Warmer sea surface temperatures are a significant contributor to the forecasted activity. The neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is also expected to play a role, allowing for favorable conditions in the Atlantic.
Staffing Concerns
- Recent staffing cuts at NOAA raise concerns about the agency's ability to effectively monitor and forecast storm activity. This could impact the accuracy of predictions, which is critical for public safety as the season approaches.
What the papers say
According to The Independent, Tropical Storm Alvin is currently about 670 miles south-southeast of Baja California, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is expected to strengthen before weakening by Friday. AP News corroborates this information, noting that there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
The Atlantic hurricane season, beginning June 1, is forecasted to produce 13 to 19 named storms, as reported by The Guardian and New York Times. Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, emphasized that warmer sea surface temperatures are a major factor in this prediction. However, concerns about staffing cuts at NOAA, as highlighted by multiple sources, could hinder effective forecasting during the season. This sentiment is echoed in reports from The Independent and New York Times, which discuss the implications of reduced staffing on the agency's operational capabilities.
How we got here
Forecasters predict an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with 13 to 19 named storms and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. Factors include warmer sea surface temperatures and a neutral El Niño phase. Concerns arise over staffing cuts at NOAA, potentially impacting forecasting accuracy.
Go deeper
- What are the expected impacts of Alvin?
- How does this season compare to last year's?
- What should residents in hurricane-prone areas do?
Common question
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What to Expect in the 2025 Hurricane Season?
As we approach the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters are predicting an above-average year with significant storm activity. Understanding what to expect can help communities prepare effectively. Here are some common questions about the upcoming season and its implications.
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What is the Current Status of Tropical Storm Alvin and Hurricane Season Predictions?
Tropical Storm Alvin is making waves in the Pacific, and with the Atlantic hurricane season just around the corner, many are curious about what to expect. This page answers common questions about Alvin's current status, its comparison to past storms, and how residents can prepare for the upcoming hurricane season.
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The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is an American scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.
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Kenneth Graham is an American meteorologist who is currently serving as the Director of the National Weather Service. Graham previously served as the Director of the National Hurricane Center from 2018 to 2022. Prior to that, he was the lead meteorologist
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