What's happened
India conducted a test of its Agni-V missile, capable of traveling over 5,000 km at hypersonic speeds, amid regional tensions. The test appears aimed at China, following recent military developments and India's efforts to bolster its deterrence capabilities. Pakistan responded by establishing a new Rocket Force Command.
What's behind the headline?
The recent Indian missile test signals a strategic shift aimed primarily at China, not Pakistan. India’s development of the Agni-V, a nuclear-capable missile with a 5,000 km range, underscores its focus on long-range deterrence against China, especially given the border standoff since 2020. The timing before Modi’s visit to China suggests a message of military strength and diplomatic intent to stabilize relations while maintaining deterrence.
The Pakistani response, establishing the ARFC, indicates a long-term doctrinal evolution rather than a reaction to India’s test. Experts see it as a move to improve conventional missile capabilities, especially in light of recent conflicts and regional tensions. The ARFC’s focus on guided conventional rockets, separate from nuclear forces, aims to increase operational readiness and strategic flexibility.
Both nations are expanding their missile arsenals, reflecting a broader regional arms race. India’s focus on long-range missiles complements its efforts to modernize and integrate its military forces, including proposed theatre commands. Pakistan’s emphasis on conventional missile forces aims to counterbalance India’s growing capabilities, especially in the context of recent conflicts and ongoing border disputes.
The developments highlight a persistent regional security dilemma, where both countries seek to deter each other through advanced missile technology. The focus on long-range, nuclear-capable missiles by India and Pakistan’s emphasis on guided conventional rockets will likely escalate the arms race, increasing the risk of miscalculation but also serving as a deterrent.
The international community will watch these moves closely, as they influence regional stability and nuclear deterrence dynamics. The focus on strategic balance suggests both countries will continue to invest heavily in missile technology, with potential implications for global non-proliferation efforts.
What the papers say
The articles from Al Jazeera and South China Morning Post provide detailed insights into India’s missile capabilities and regional strategic considerations. Al Jazeera emphasizes the missile’s technical specifications and its timing relative to Modi’s diplomatic outreach to China, highlighting India’s focus on deterring Beijing. The South China Morning Post discusses India’s military reorganization and the broader regional security context, including India’s resistance to adopting new theatre commands and its focus on China.
Contrastingly, the Pakistani sources from Al Jazeera and Bloomberg focus on Pakistan’s response, notably the creation of the ARFC. They frame it as a long-term doctrinal evolution aimed at enhancing conventional missile capabilities, separate from nuclear forces. The Pakistani articles stress regional threats and the need for operational readiness, with experts noting that the ARFC is not a reaction to India’s missile tests but part of a broader strategic shift.
Overall, the coverage from both sides underscores the ongoing arms race and strategic competition in South Asia, with India’s missile test serving as a key signal to China and Pakistan’s response reflecting its desire to modernize and diversify its missile forces. The articles collectively highlight the complex interplay of deterrence, regional diplomacy, and military modernization shaping the current security landscape.
How we got here
India's Agni-V missile, with a range of 5,000 km, has been tested multiple times since 2012. The recent test coincided with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China for the SCO summit, amid a thaw in relations after border tensions. Pakistan announced the formation of a new Army Rocket Force Command following a conflict with India in May, aiming to enhance its conventional missile capabilities. Both countries are expanding their missile arsenals, reflecting ongoing regional strategic competition.
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