What's happened
UK house prices increased by 0.3% in February, with annual growth steady at 1%. The market remains resilient ahead of the spring forecast, avoiding the negative speculation seen before last November’s budget. Economists expect continued recovery, supported by improved affordability and mortgage availability.
What's behind the headline?
The UK housing market's recent stability signals a cautious but optimistic outlook. The 0.3% rise in February, matching January’s increase, indicates that the market is avoiding the downturn seen previously due to political speculation. The absence of negative sentiment around the upcoming spring forecast suggests that buyers and sellers are proceeding with more confidence.
The steady annual growth rate of 1% reflects a modest recovery after late 2025’s dip, driven by better affordability and mortgage access. However, the broader economic context remains uncertain, with inflation pressures and energy prices affecting monetary policy decisions.
The Bank of England’s likelihood of a rate cut has diminished due to rising oil prices, which could hinder inflation targets and mortgage affordability. This environment suggests that while the housing market is currently stable, future interest rate movements and fiscal policies will be critical in maintaining this momentum. The market’s resilience indicates that, barring external shocks, house prices will continue to grow gradually in the coming quarters, supported by ongoing demand and improved borrowing conditions.
How we got here
House prices in the UK have experienced fluctuations over recent months, influenced by political uncertainty and potential tax changes. The market's resilience in February follows a period of volatility, with activity driven by improved affordability and mortgage conditions. The upcoming spring forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to shape future market sentiment.
Our analysis
The Guardian reports that house prices rose 0.3% in February, with annual growth steady at 1%, and highlights the market’s resilience ahead of the spring forecast. Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, attributes the recovery to improved affordability and mortgage availability, noting that activity has increased since late 2025. Meanwhile, Sky News emphasizes that the spring statement will be low-key, with no major tax or policy announcements, but will still influence future economic and fiscal planning. The articles collectively suggest that the UK housing market remains stable, despite broader economic uncertainties, with cautious optimism for continued growth.
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Rachel Reeves - Member of Parliament of the United Kingdom
Rachel Jane Reeves is a British Labour Party politician serving as Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office since 2020. She has been the Member of Parliament for Leeds West since 2010.
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Office for Budget Responsibility - Non-departmental public body
The Office for Budget Responsibility is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances.