Independent UK forecaster of public finances since 2010
As of early April 2026, US 30-year fixed mortgage rates have climbed to 6.37%, up from under 6% six weeks ago, driven by the Iran war's impact on energy prices and inflation fears. This rise is slowing US home sales and mortgage applications during the spring buying season. In the UK, house prices fell 0.5% in March, slipping below £300,000, with mortgage rates rising above 5%, signaling a cooling housing market.
The UK has reported a lower-than-expected public sector deficit of £132 billion for the year to March, driven by higher tax receipts. However, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to increase borrowing costs and reduce fiscal space, threatening future economic stability.