Independent UK forecaster of public finances
Financial markets are pricing in the political shift toward a Burnham-led government, with mortgage costs sensitive to fiscal signals. Housing policy is expected to intensify, with calls for a major council-house building programme and tighter rental regulation. Homeowners, buyers and landlords should watch mortgage rate trajectories as markets interpret the new government’s fiscal discipline and spending plans.
The Timms review into Personal Independence Payment (PIP) is driving a sweeping overhaul of the disability benefit system as claims rise and costs surge. Government figures show four million claimants and a forecast to reach 341bn across welfare by 2030. Ministers say reform is necessary to restore fairness and sustain the system.
Andy Burnham has become prime minister and has announced a cabinet that removes key Starmer allies, appoints John Healey as chancellor and moves Ed Miliband to the Foreign Office. Burnham has promised immediate measures to give households "breathing space", to end rough sleeping and to set out how he will pay for his plans this week.
Andy Burnham has been confirmed as Labour leader at a special conference in London and will become prime minister on Monday after Keir Starmer formally resigns to the King. Burnham has secured overwhelming support from Labour MPs, pledged a "distinctively Labour" government, and promised to devolve power, tackle social care and focus on growth outside London.
Public sector net borrowing in June has come in lower than forecast, driven by higher tax receipts and lower debt interest costs. The new Chancellor pledges fiscal discipline as the government aligns with its rules, while energy bills relief and a funding shift shape the autumn budget.
New research proposes a 2% wealth tax on households with £100m+ assets to raise revenues and narrow inequality. The plan, authored by Gabriel Zucman and Ben Tippet, would require HMRC to assess total wealth, including private firms, assets, and charitable holdings, and would apply for a decade after wealth holders leave the UK. Prime Minister Burnham hints at tax reforms as discussions continue.
Public borrowing in July stands at 1.8 billion, above forecasts, with four-month deficit at 56.7 billion. Tax receipts hit a record for July, but spending growth outpaced receipts, keeping debt near 3 trillion and GDP share at about 94%. Chancellor Healey to unveil October Budget amid fiscal discipline pledges.
The latest data show the U.S. debt level has surged to around $40 trillion, with deficits remaining large and interest costs rising. The government must refinance vast sums this year as deficits persist, and the nation faces a fiscal reckoning that will influence households, politics and investment decisions for years to come.
Global government bond yields have risen to multi‑decade highs this week after renewed US–Iran fighting pushed oil toward $90–$97 a barrel and revived inflation fears. Governments from the UK to the US and Japan have paid higher borrowing costs; central banks are signalling tighter policy and markets are pricing more rate rises, lifting mortgage and corporate loan rates.
The Guardian and Independent pieces show renewed debate over Enfield’s proposed 21,000‑home town, amid opposition from local groups and Conservative greens. Critics warn against green belt loss and traffic, while supporters argue the plan could relieve housing pressure. The government’s broader housing agenda and mayoral oversight are central to the dispute.
The triple lock has raised costs and sparked calls for reform. Governments and thinktanks say the system is expensive and unsustainable; opponents urge targeted support for pensioners, while some advocate linking uplifts to inflation only. The debate centers on funding, fairness, and youth opportunities as the policy’s future comes under review.
The government has faced rising inflation to 3.1% in August, driven by Middle East turmoil and higher fuel prices. Ministers are facing calls to act on the cost of living, with energy bills and transport costs under scrutiny ahead of the autumn Budget.
Inflation has moved to a five‑month high of 3.1% as fuel prices and airfares climb, driven by Middle East conflict. The government has announced relief measures while stressing fiscal prudence. The Budget is six weeks away, and markets face higher borrowing costs amid a fragile headroom.
New data show many Britons do not know the value of their pension pots or how much they will receive. Officials say a pensions dashboard will reveal unclaimed pension pots, while forecasts can be checked via HMRC apps. The discussion centers on whether triple lock protections will continue as costs rise.
The UK has borrowed £18.3bn in August, the ONS has reported, topping City and OBR forecasts and leaving year‑to‑date borrowing at £77.3bn — £8.1bn above the OBR projection. Rising gilt yields have pushed debt interest to record August levels and are narrowing Chancellor John Healey’s fiscal headroom ahead of the 28 October Budget.
The Liberal Democrats have pledged tax cuts funded by growth from rejoining the EU single market and customs union. The plan envisions raising the personal allowance to £15,000 and lifting the 40p threshold to £56,000, with full effects in year five and potentially later, depending on EU negotiations. Supporters cite growth forecasts, while critics caution about the timetable and cost assumptions.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has announced the triple lock on the state pension will remain until the end of this parliament but from April 2030 will rise each year by the higher of inflation or 2.5%, removing the automatic annual link to earnings. The government says the change will free savings to build a National Care Service; critics warn of pensioner losses and political fallout.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has announced plans to abolish inheritance tax on family homes, with couples able to leave an additional £1 million tax-free. The move, framed as strengthening home ownership, targets traditional Conservative supporters in southern England while drawing criticism from Labour and unions over public-finance implications.