Independent UK forecasts and public finances analysis
A wave of policy proposals from Andy Burnham’s leadership bid foreground devolution, cheaper energy, and a major council-house programme, while economists warn of the political and fiscal hurdles ahead. The Mirror and BBC outline how these ideas could reshape local power and living standards, with scrutiny on timetables and the cost of promised reforms.
Progressive economists have written to Unite’s Sharon Graham opposing Miliband’s plan to expand North Sea oil and gas while Labour braces for Burnham’s leadership and a reshuffle of the Treasury. The debate centers on jobs, net zero and national security as ministers promise business‑as‑usual in the crisis week.
Financial markets are pricing in the political shift toward a Burnham-led government, with mortgage costs sensitive to fiscal signals. Housing policy is expected to intensify, with calls for a major council-house building programme and tighter rental regulation. Homeowners, buyers and landlords should watch mortgage rate trajectories as markets interpret the new government’s fiscal discipline and spending plans.
The UK–US pharmaceutical deal has led to a BMJ analysis predicting the NHS will divert billions to fund new medicines, risking hundreds of thousands of excess deaths by 2036, with the toll higher if social care funding is included.
Milburn has held private talks with Andy Burnham, saying the incoming prime minister has an appetite to revisit welfare reforms this term. Milburn argues reform should help young people work and reduce reliance on benefits, while avoiding disproportionate harm to disabled people or low-income households. Labour MPs and disability campaigners caution against sweeping cuts amid rising welfare spending.
Andy Burnham has been installed as prime minister and has promised immediate measures to give households "breathing room" on the cost of living. He has begun selecting a cabinet, signalled support for new North Sea drilling, and faces immediate fiscal and defence funding gaps that his first autumn Budget must fill.
Andy Burnham has been confirmed as Labour leader at a special conference in London and will become prime minister on Monday after Keir Starmer formally resigns to the King. Burnham has secured overwhelming support from Labour MPs, pledged a "distinctively Labour" government, and promised to devolve power, tackle social care and focus on growth outside London.
Public sector net borrowing in June has come in lower than forecast, driven by higher tax receipts and lower debt interest costs. The new Chancellor pledges fiscal discipline as the government aligns with its rules, while energy bills relief and a funding shift shape the autumn budget.
New research proposes a 2% wealth tax on households with £100m+ assets to raise revenues and narrow inequality. The plan, authored by Gabriel Zucman and Ben Tippet, would require HMRC to assess total wealth, including private firms, assets, and charitable holdings, and would apply for a decade after wealth holders leave the UK. Prime Minister Burnham hints at tax reforms as discussions continue.
Public borrowing in July stands at 1.8 billion, above forecasts, with four-month deficit at 56.7 billion. Tax receipts hit a record for July, but spending growth outpaced receipts, keeping debt near 3 trillion and GDP share at about 94%. Chancellor Healey to unveil October Budget amid fiscal discipline pledges.
The latest data show the U.S. debt level has surged to around $40 trillion, with deficits remaining large and interest costs rising. The government must refinance vast sums this year as deficits persist, and the nation faces a fiscal reckoning that will influence households, politics and investment decisions for years to come.