What's happened
Russia and Syria are working to restore their relationship following the toppling of Bashar al-Assad. Moscow maintains military bases in Syria, with recent withdrawals from Qamishli, while building ties with Syria's new leadership under Sharaa. The talks highlight ongoing regional influence and strategic interests.
What's behind the headline?
Russia's diplomatic efforts with Syria are driven by strategic interests in maintaining regional influence and military presence. The recent withdrawal from Qamishli indicates a tactical repositioning, but Moscow's focus remains on securing its bases at Hmeimim and Tartus, which are vital for projecting power in the Middle East. The relationship with Sharaa's government is pragmatic; Moscow recognizes the need to adapt to Syria's new political landscape while safeguarding its military assets. The sheltering of Assad and his wife in Moscow continues to be a diplomatic obstacle, signaling unresolved tensions. The US's warm relations with Sharaa and the ongoing ceasefire suggest a shifting regional balance, with Moscow seeking to reassert its influence amid evolving alliances. The outcome will likely see Russia consolidating its military footprint while navigating complex diplomatic ties with Syria's government and regional actors.
How we got here
Russia was a key supporter of Bashar al-Assad during Syria's civil war, providing military aid and maintaining bases like Hmeimim and Tartus. Assad's ouster by Sharaa's rebel forces in late 2024 shifted regional dynamics, prompting Moscow to seek new relations with Syria's current leadership. Moscow's sheltering of Assad and his wife in Russia remains a sensitive issue, complicating diplomatic efforts. Recent withdrawals from Qamishli reflect strategic adjustments, while Moscow aims to preserve its military presence and influence in the region.
Our analysis
The Times of Israel, The New Arab, The Moscow Times, and Al Jazeera all confirm Russia's efforts to rebuild ties with Syria's new leadership following Assad's ousting. While all sources agree on the strategic importance of Russia's military bases and the recent withdrawal from Qamishli, they differ slightly in tone. The Times of Israel emphasizes the diplomatic progress and ongoing obstacles, notably Russia's sheltering of Assad. The New Arab highlights the pragmatic approach of Sharaa's government and the regional implications. The Moscow Times provides detailed insight into Moscow's strategic repositioning and the significance of the bases. Al Jazeera focuses on the military presence and the diplomatic nuances surrounding Assad's asylum in Moscow, noting the US's contrasting approach and the fragile ceasefire. Overall, these sources paint a picture of a Russia seeking to reassert influence in Syria amid shifting regional alliances and internal political changes.
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