What's happened
Atlantic hurricane activity has remained unusually low this season, with no hurricanes forming yet. Forecasters say El Niño, Sahara dust, and high wind shear are suppressing development, while Pacific activity remains high. The season has seen record-breaking delays in hurricane formation, with experts cautioning that a single system could still cause damage.
What's behind the headline?
Brief
- El Niño is driving high wind shear and dry air over the Atlantic, suppressing storm formation.
- Sahara dust further inhibits convection, contributing to a historically quiet season.
- Pacific activity remains robust, illustrating a global redistribution of hurricane activity.
What this means
- The Atlantic could remain quiet through the peak period, reducing immediate coastal risk but leaving the door open for a late-season surprise.
- If a system does form, it could intensify rapidly in an environment still warm yet hostile to development, complicating forecasting.
Outlook
- Forecasters expect at least 8-11 storms overall in the basin later in the season, though current conditions suppress confidence in large numbers.
- Monitoring will continue for any shifts in El Niño intensity or Sahara dust transport that could alter the balance.
How we got here
Forecasters have tracked an exceptionally strong El Niño this year, which is altering global weather patterns. The Sahara dust layer and persistent wind shear across the Atlantic are suppressing tropical development even as ocean temperatures stay warm. The Pacific basin has seen heightened activity, contrasting with the Atlantic trend.
Our analysis
- Independent reports on El Niño and Atlantic activity; - AP News coverage detailing wind shear and dry air; - BBC and Guardian summaries tracking hurricane season progress; - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assessments of ongoing El Niño strength.
Go deeper
- Will El Niño continue to suppress Atlantic storms into the fall?
- Could a late-season hurricane form and catch regions by surprise?
- How does Pacific activity influence Atlantic forecasts this season?
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