What's happened
The Atlantic hurricane season has produced no hurricanes so far this season, with forecasters noting El Niño and Saharan dust suppressing activity. While the Pacific remains busy, records in the Atlantic could be challenged if no hurricanes form through autumn.
What's behind the headline?
Analysis
- El Niño is the dominant force suppressing Atlantic formation, likely keeping the basin unusually quiet through the peak months.
- The contrast with the Pacific, where multiple hurricanes are active, highlights seasonal complexity in global tropical weather.
- Readers should watch late-season trends to gauge whether the Atlantic will finally produce storms as El Niño peaks.
Forecasts suggest the Atlantic could remain unusually quiet for the remainder of the season, while the Pacific remains potentially volatile due to ongoing El Niño influence.
How we got here
El Niño conditions are strengthening toward a potential historic peak, suppressing Atlantic storm development through wind shear and dust transport from the Sahara. The Pacific has already seen elevated activity, with multiple hurricanes occurring concurrently.
Our analysis
BBC Business reports that the Atlantic has seen exceptionally few storms this season, noting record-late-first-hurricane potential if calm continues. The Independent highlights AccuWeather’s view that El Niño could prevent hurricanes through much of the remainder of the season, with forecasts calling for continued quiet conditions in the Atlantic. The Guardian discusses current Pacific activity and historical context for simultaneous Pacific hurricanes, suggesting ongoing risk in the region while Atlantic activity stays muted.
Go deeper
- Will the Atlantic finally form a hurricane before the season ends?
- How does El Niño strengthen further over the coming months, and what does that mean for Atlantic vs Pacific activity?
- What should coastal residents prepare for if the pattern shifts late in the season?
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