What's happened
Goldman Sachs has updated its personal trading policy to bar employees from trading on event-based contracts tied to the bank, elections, financial markets and geopolitics. The move aims to curb the risk of insider trading and conflicts of interest as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi expand activity. Other banks are reviewing policies as regulators watch closely.
What's behind the headline?
Analysis
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The update signals growing concern about insider risk in prediction markets, particularly where outcomes touch the bank’s business or external markets.
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Regulators have signalled heightened scrutiny, and firms are introducing clearer internal policies to avoid liability.
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Readers should watch how other banks respond and whether policy changes affect employee trading behavior and market liquidity.
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This shift could push platforms toward more robust compliance features as institutions address potential conflicts of interest.
How we got here
Goldman has long prohibited use of material nonpublic information for trading. The development follows a separate case where a Google employee reportedly profited from Polymarket contracts using internal data. Banks are increasingly evaluating policies for prediction-market activity amid growth in the sector.
Our analysis
- New York Post reports that Goldman Sachs bans employees from event-based contracts that could present conflicts of interest; Bloomberg/Reuters note broader restrictions and disciplinary implications. - CNBC highlights insider-trading risks on prediction markets and cites Google’s case and industry policy development. - Bloomberg confirms Goldman’s personal trading policy update restricting company-specific event contracts.
Go deeper
- What steps will Goldman take to enforce these rules?
- Will other banks follow with stricter policies or exemptions for certain markets?
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New York is a state in the Northeastern United States. New York was one of the original thirteen colonies that formed the United States. With more than 19 million residents in 2019, it is the fourth-most-populous state.
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Goldman Sachs - Investment banking company
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in New York City.
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Wall Street - Street in New York City, New York
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Kalshi - American prediction market platform
Kalshi Inc. is a prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City, that launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of site activity and 89% of revenue in 2025. Analysts describe activity on the platform as "heavily tied to the sports calendar". Individuals can place bets on other future outcomes, including economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, political and legislative outcomes, and military conflicts. The site has been involved in several controversies and lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports and election markets, the ethics of allowing wagers on sensitive geopolitical issues, and insider trading involving politicians. Concerns over election integrity and declining public trust in the democratic process caused by election betting have been raised by consumer advocacy groups and politicians. As a result, the United States Senate banned its senators and their staff from betting on prediction markets such as Kalshi in May 2026. According to the site, there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one. Scholars have challenged whether Kalshi efficiently and accurately aggregates information...
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Polymarket - Online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine
Polymarket is an American financial exchange and the world's largest prediction market, headquartered on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, New York City and offering event contracts.