What's happened
On November 11, 2025, Iraq held parliamentary elections amid low voter turnout and widespread skepticism. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani seeks a second term while balancing US and Iranian influences. The Sadrist Movement boycotted the vote, and Iran-backed militias remain politically active. The election outcome will shape Iraq's fragile stability and regional alliances.
What's behind the headline?
Iraq's 2025 Parliamentary Election: A Test of Stability and Influence
The November 2025 election in Iraq underscores the country's ongoing struggle to balance internal governance challenges with external geopolitical pressures. Despite relative calm compared to past decades, Iraq remains a battleground for influence between the US and Iran, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani positioned as a pragmatic figure attempting to navigate this complex landscape.
The election's low turnout, potentially below the 41% record low in 2021, reflects deep public disillusionment with a political system perceived as corrupt and unresponsive. The boycott by Moqtada al-Sadr's Sadrist Movement, a significant Shiite faction, further weakens the electoral legitimacy and signals fractures within the Shiite political bloc.
Iran-backed militias, such as Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq led by Qais al-Khazali, continue to wield substantial political and military power, blurring lines between armed groups and formal politics. Their participation through affiliated parties ensures Iran's sustained influence, even as the US pressures Baghdad to disarm these groups.
Sudani's campaign emphasizes infrastructure development and economic reforms, aiming to deliver tangible improvements to Iraqis weary of instability and poor services. However, his reliance on the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Shiite parties linked to Iran, limits his ability to enact deep reforms without alienating powerful factions.
The election outcome will likely result in protracted coalition negotiations, as no single party is expected to secure a majority. This prolongs political uncertainty and complicates efforts to address pressing issues like militia disarmament, economic recovery, and regional diplomacy.
For Iraqis, the election is less about immediate change and more about maintaining fragile stability amid regional upheavals, including the Israel-Iran conflict and shifting alliances. The international community, particularly the US and Iran, will closely watch the results to gauge Iraq's future alignment and the prospects for reducing militia influence.
In sum, the 2025 election is a critical juncture that will shape Iraq's political trajectory, but entrenched sectarianism, militia power, and public skepticism mean meaningful reform remains elusive. Iraq will continue to be a geopolitical pivot, with its internal politics reflecting broader regional contests.
What the papers say
The Times of Israel highlights Iraq's ongoing struggles with corruption, poor services, and political stagnation, noting that "many have lost hope that elections can bring meaningful change" and emphasizing the absence of new political figures. The Independent's Qassim Abdul-Zahra details the election logistics and the complex sectarian power-sharing system, pointing out the declining voter registration and turnout, and the boycott by Moqtada al-Sadr's Sadrist Movement. Al Jazeera underscores the geopolitical stakes, noting that "the vote will be closely watched in Iran and the United States," and describes the delicate balance Prime Minister Sudani must maintain between Tehran and Washington. Reuters' Ahmed Rasheed focuses on the anticipated election results, forecasting that Sudani's bloc will win the most seats but fall short of a majority, leading to prolonged coalition talks. He also discusses the influence of Iran-backed militias participating via political parties and the challenges posed by low voter turnout and public disillusionment. The New Arab provides background on militia leader Qais al-Khazali and his Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq movement's political ambitions, illustrating the blurred lines between armed groups and formal politics. Together, these sources paint a picture of an election marked by entrenched sectarianism, militia influence, public skepticism, and significant regional implications, with Sudani's leadership and coalition-building skills central to Iraq's near-term political stability.
How we got here
Since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, Iraq has struggled with sectarian divisions, proxy conflicts, and political instability. The Shiite majority dominates politics, with power-sharing among Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds. Recent years saw relative stability but persistent corruption, poor services, and militia influence. The 2025 election is the seventh since 2003, amid regional tensions and US pressure to disarm Iran-backed militias.
Go deeper
- Why is voter turnout so low in Iraq's elections?
- What role do Iran-backed militias play in Iraqi politics?
- How does Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani balance US and Iranian interests?
Common question
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What’s behind the rising violence in Iraq and its impact on elections?
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Why Are Iraq's Elections Happening Amid Violence?
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Why is Iraq's upcoming election so tense and violent?
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What’s Happening with Iraq’s Upcoming Elections?
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What Do Iraq's Upcoming Elections Mean for Regional Stability?
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What’s Really Going On With Iraq’s Elections and Political Tensions?
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Why Is Iraq’s Election So Important Right Now?
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What’s next for Iraq after the elections?
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