Lula leads in polls as Brazil heads to runoff

What's happened

A national poll shows Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, with Lula at 49.3% to Bolsonaro's 36.8% among likely voters. The survey also notes a June 10-14 field period across 143 municipalities and a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

What's behind the headline?

Analysis

Lula has consolidated support since the April poll, narrowing the gap in a hypothetical second round.
Bolsonaro’s position appears weaker in the latest data, though the margin remains within polling error margins.
The polling results come amid a broader political climate in Brazil as campaigns intensify ahead of October elections.
The score of the poll depends on how respondents interpret probability of voting, and regional variations could influence outcomes.

What this implies for voters

If Lula maintains his lead, he will likely secure a second-round matchup in which his supporters could mobilize for turnout.
Bolsonaro will need to broaden appeal beyond his core base to improve prospects in the second round.

How we got here

The latest CNT/MDA poll tracks voter preferences as Brazil heads toward a potential October election runoff, following previous surveys that showed Lula leading or closing the gap with Bolsonaro. The data reflect shifts since the April benchmark and include responses from over 2,000 Brazilians.

Our analysis

Reuters reporters Isabel Teles and Eduardo Simoes report on CNT/MDA data gathered June 10-14 from 2,002 individuals in 143 municipalities; See Reuters coverage for the April baseline and poll methodology.

Go deeper

What regional factors could influence the runoff outcome?
How have recent events affected Lula's approval ratings?
When are new polls expected ahead of the October vote?