What's happened
El Niño has intensified, with Pacific temperatures rising above 3°C in the forecast peak. Met Office and UK officials warn of unprecedented global warmth, drought in the south and storms for the autumn. 2027 is expected to be the hottest year on record.
What's behind the headline?
What this means now
- Global temperatures are rising as ocean heat releases into the atmosphere, signaling a deepening pattern that will influence weather across continents.
- The UK is preparing for an autumn of more rainfall and storminess, while drought persists in parts of the southern hemisphere.
Why it matters
- An unprecedented El Niño will test climate resilience, urging policymakers to address water security and heat-related risks.
What could come next
- If forecasts hold, 2027 may set a new warmth record, prompting adaptation measures in energy, agriculture and urban planning.
How we got here
Analysts say the current El Niño pattern is intensifying long-standing climate trends. Forecasts indicate a peak that could exceed 3°C above normal, driving stronger weather extremes worldwide and stressing water and energy systems.
Our analysis
France 24 and Guardian report that El Niño may peak with Pacific temperatures around 3°C, with global impacts including droughts and heavier autumn rainfall in the UK. BBC Business adds context on potential 2027 heat records and global temperature anomalies.
Go deeper
- Will 2027 break the temperature record again?
- What regions are at most risk this autumn?
- How are water utilities preparing for drought and floods?
More on these topics
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Met Office - Weather service
The Meteorological Office, abbreviated as the Met Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy led by CEO Penelope Endersby, who took on
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Adam Scaife - British meteorologist (born 1970)
Adam A. Scaife is a British physicist and head of long range prediction at the Met Office. He is also a professor at Exeter University. Scaife carries out research into long range weather forecasting and computer modelling of the climate and has published
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Australia - Country in Oceania
Australia, officially known as the Commonwealth of Australia, is a sovereign country comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands.
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El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.
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South America - Continent
South America is a continent in the Western Hemisphere, mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, with a relatively small portion in the Northern Hemisphere.