What's happened
El Niño has strengthened, with forecasters warning it will be among the strongest on record. Regions across Africa, South Asia, and the Americas face droughts, floods, and rising food prices as climate impacts intensify. Aid groups warn that vulnerable communities and smallholder farmers will bear the brunt as aid budgets tighten.
What's behind the headline?
Brief
- El Niño is intensifying and could rival the strongest on record.
- Impacts are uneven: some regions face droughts while others see floods, with food prices likely to rise globally.
- Historic patterns show linkages to reduced harvests in certain crops and regions.
Why this matters
- Food security is sensitive to weather shocks and price volatility; vulnerable households will bear the burden.
- Preparedness and timely aid can mitigate some impacts, but funding gaps remain.
What could happen next
- October-December will be high-risk for heavy rainfall in East Africa and South Asia, possibly worsening malnutrition and supply disruptions.
- Global food markets may remain volatile as the cycle unfolds.
Outlook
- International collaboration and early action are essential to cushion the worst effects for the most vulnerable.
How we got here
El Niño is a recurring Pacific Ocean warming pattern that alters global weather. This cycle tends to cause droughts in some regions and heavy rains in others. This year’s event is expected to be unusually strong, compounded by climate pressures and ongoing conflicts that disrupt food supply chains.
Our analysis
Bloomberg: El Niño forecast and global food price implications; The Guardian: warnings on inflation and regional rainfall patterns; Independent: CARE International reports on aid cuts and women’s health impacts; Al Jazeera: UN and WMO updates on El Niño strength and regional risks.
Go deeper
- What regions should households in your area monitor for climate-related price changes?
- What steps can individuals take to mitigate food-cost impacts in the coming months?
- Which aid agencies are prioritising funding for El Niño preparedness?
More on these topics
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El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.
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Pacific Ocean - Ocean
The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean in the south and is bounded by the continents of Asia and Australia in the west and the Americas in the east.
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Africa - Continent
Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent, after Asia. At about 30.3 million km² including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of Earth's total surface area and 20% of its land area.
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Malawi - Country in East Africa
Malawi, officially the Republic of Malawi, is a landlocked country in southeastern Africa that was formerly known as Nyasaland.
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United States - Country in North America
The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.
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Somalia - Country in East Africa
Somalia, officially the Federal Republic of Somalia, is a sovereign country in the Horn of Africa. It is bordered by Ethiopia to the west, the Gulf of Aden to the north, the Guardafui Channel and Somali Sea to the east, and Kenya to the southwest.
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Kenya - Country in East Africa
Kenya, officially the Republic of Kenya, is a country in Eastern Africa. At 580,367 square kilometres, Kenya is the world's 48th largest country by total area. With a population of more than 47.6 million people, Kenya is the 29th most populous country.
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Bangladesh - Country in South Asia
Bangladesh, officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a country in South Asia. It is the eighth-most populous country in the world, with a population exceeding 162 million people.