Very strong El Niño will hit 2026–27

What's happened

Climate models have shown an unusually powerful El Niño forming in the tropical Pacific that has a high chance of peaking this year or into 2027. Forecasts have indicated record ocean temperatures, widespread risks to food and water supplies across Africa and Latin America, and added pressure on prices and supply chains already strained by conflict and heatwaves.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening

Global climate models are forecasting a very strong El Niño that is building now and will likely peak between late 2026 and early 2027. Multiple forecasting groups have produced unusually high sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niña 3.4 region, with some models projecting values above previous records.

Regional impacts and chains of consequence

• Eastern Africa is seeing greater flood risk while southern Africa is facing heightened drought risk; both outcomes will disrupt harvests, water supplies and health services.
• Latin America will experience contrasting impacts: coastal flooding in Peru and water shortages in Andean highlands, and variable conditions across Chile.
• Fisheries and marine ecosystems, such as the Galápagos, are already at risk from warm waters that remove nutrients and collapse local food chains.

These impacts will combine with two existing pressures: an ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict that is disrupting shipping and inputs, and recent marine heatwaves that have reduced fisheries productivity. Those pressures will amplify food and energy price shocks and will strain transport and humanitarian responses.

Who will feel it first and worst

Smallholder farmers across the Global South will bear the immediate brunt: crop failures from drought in southern Africa and crop and infrastructure losses from floods in eastern Africa and parts of Latin America. Fragile and conflict-affected states will have the least capacity to respond and will therefore face higher risks of acute food insecurity.

What governments and institutions must do now

• Scale anticipatory cash transfers and seed/fertilizer distribution to protect planting cycles.
• Fortify transport and storage infrastructure to limit supply-chain losses.
• Accelerate early-warning systems and targeted public-health measures where floods and disease risk are rising.

Forecast

This event will increase the probability that 2026 or 2027 becomes the hottest year on record. It will raise food and energy price volatility and will force governments and aid agencies to act now or face larger humanitarian costs later.

How we got here

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that has shifted global weather patterns for decades. Long-term ocean warming from climate change has increased baseline heat in the Pacific, making this event likely to be stronger and to last longer than typical cycles.

Our analysis

The coverage has converged on the same central point — models are showing an exceptionally strong El Niño — but publishers have emphasised different consequences. The Guardian has focused on the extraordinary heat in the Pacific and ecological collapse in places such as the Galápagos, noting scientists describing model forecasts as “mind blowing” and citing model peaks above previously observed extremes. The Independent has highlighted humanitarian risks, quoting FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warning of a “double blow” where extreme weather combines with reduced access to seeds and fertiliser because of shipping disruptions linked to the U.S.–Iran war. AllAfrica and the Independent have underlined the consequences for Africa’s food security and called for strengthened preparedness ahead of COP meetings; the AU’s Harsen Nyambe has opened meetings to coordinate member states and agencies. Business outlets — Business Insider UK and Deutsche Bank notes cited by other coverage — have emphasised economic transmission: higher food and transport costs, potential inflationary pressure and parallels with past episodes when El Niño and oil shocks raised consumer prices. BBC Business and Bloomberg bring local examples of marine and hunger trends: warming seas changing fish stocks around Guernsey and UN reporting that global hunger numbers have been falling but remain vulnerable to shocks. Together these sources show a consistent scientific signal translated into distinct policy and economic concerns: ecological collapse and species risk (The Guardian), humanitarian and agricultural emergency (Independent, AllAfrica), and economic price and supply shocks (Business Insider UK, Independent quoting Barclays research).

Go deeper

• Which countries have launched anticipatory funding or seed-distribution plans?
• How will shipping disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz blockade affect fertiliser flows?
• What protections are being put in place for vulnerable coastal and smallholder communities?

More on these topics

• El Niño

  El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.

• United States - Country in North America

  The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.

• The Guardian - Newspaper

  The Guardian is a British daily newspaper. It was founded in 1821 as The Manchester Guardian, and changed its name in 1959. Along with its sister papers The Observer and The Guardian Weekly, The Guardian is part of the Guardian Media Group, owned by the S

• United Nations - Intergovernmental organization

  The United Nations is an intergovernmental organization that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations.

• United Kingdom - Country in Europe

  The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom or Britain, is a sovereign country located off the north­western coast of the European mainland.

• Pacific Ocean - Ocean

  The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean in the south and is bounded by the continents of Asia and Australia in the west and the Americas in the east.

• Africa - Continent

  Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent, after Asia. At about 30.3 million km² including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of Earth's total surface area and 20% of its land area.