What's happened
El Niño has formed in the Pacific and is expected to strengthen through late 2026, with a 63% chance of reaching a very strong level. Forecasts warn of hotter global temperatures and extreme weather, while impacts will vary by region. Scientists urge preparation and climate action as nations monitor evolving conditions.
What's behind the headline?
Key takeaways
- El Niño is forming and strengthening; global temperatures are likely to rise further this year.
- Impacts are region-specific: droughts and heatwaves in some areas; floods or storms in others.
- Forecasts carry uncertainty about exact strength and timing, but the signal is strong enough to warrant planning.
Context and questions for readers
- How will your region be affected this year?
- What steps can households and businesses take to build resilience?
Predictions
- The pattern is expected to peak this fall/winter, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record, with broad economic and social implications.
How we got here
NOAA and other agencies confirm El Niño formation in the tropical Pacific. Heat in the central/eastern Pacific is driving shifts in rainfall, temperatures, and storm tracks worldwide. Past events have triggered droughts, floods, and heatwaves, underscoring the need for robust forecasting and climate resilience.
Our analysis
NOAA statements; World Meteorological Organization assessments; national meteorological services (NASA, BoM, Met Office); independent climate researchers.
Go deeper
- What regional changes are policymakers recommending for agriculture and water management?
- Are cities adapting storm-water systems to handle heavier rainfall or droughts?
- How might energy prices and food security be affected this year?
More on these topics
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El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Agency
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is an American scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.
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Australia - Country in Oceania
Australia, officially known as the Commonwealth of Australia, is a sovereign country comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands.
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World Meteorological Organization - Intergovernmental organization
The World Meteorological Organization is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 193 Member States and Territories. The President of the World Meteorological Congress, its supreme body, is Gerhard Adrian as a successor of David Grimes. The
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Columbia University - Private university in New York City, New York
Columbia University is a private Ivy League research university in New York City. Established in 1754 on the grounds of Trinity Church in Manhattan, Columbia is the oldest institution of higher education in New York and the fifth-oldest institution of hig
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Pacific Ocean - Ocean
The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean in the south and is bounded by the continents of Asia and Australia in the west and the Americas in the east.
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United Nations - Intergovernmental organization
The United Nations is an intergovernmental organization that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations.
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Climate change - Human-caused changes to climate on Earth
Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate..
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Kim Cobb - American climate scientist and academic (1974-)
Kim Cobb is an American climate scientist. She is a professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, and a Georgia Power Faculty Scholar.
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United States - Country in North America
The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.
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The Independent - Newspaper
The Independent is a British online newspaper that was established in 1986 as a national morning printed newspaper published in London. Nicknamed the Indy, it began as a broadsheet and changed to tabloid format in 2003. The last printed edition was publis