Trump ties Iran deal to Abraham Accords

What's happened

President Trump has said negotiations with Iran are "proceeding nicely" and has tied any agreement to a requirement that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan sign onto the Abraham Accords; commentators and diplomats are pushing back, noting many on his list already recognise Israel or are unlikely to normalise ties.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening

• Trump has been linking a potential settlement with Iran to simultaneous expansion of the Abraham Accords, demanding that a set of Muslim and Arab states "simultaneously" sign onto normalisation with Israel.

Why this is awkward

• Several countries on his list already have formal ties with Israel (Egypt, Jordan, Turkey) or have clear public reasons to refuse (Pakistan insists on Palestinian statehood; Saudi Arabia conditions normalisation on Palestinian progress). That makes the demand internally inconsistent.

Who benefits and who loses

• The move is serving a domestic political purpose: it will allow the administration to present any Iran settlement as a broader regional achievement. It is not advancing on-the-ground incentives that will change partner states' calculations.

Likely trajectory

• Regional leaders will resist treating Abraham Accords accession as a mandatory condition for joining a deal with Iran. This will increase diplomatic friction and slow finalisation of a settlement. If Trump insists, the deal will either exclude reluctant states or will fracture regional buy-in, weakening its durability.

Practical consequence for the Iran talks

• Tying recognition of Israel to an Iran settlement will politicise mediation channels and will force negotiators to decouple core security terms from parallel normalisation demands. That will delay signature and implementation and will increase the chance that a deal, if signed, will face limited regional endorsement.

How we got here

The Abraham Accords — first signed in 2020 between the UAE and Bahrain and later joined by Morocco, Sudan and Kazakhstan — have been used as a US-led framework for normalising ties with Israel. Trump has been negotiating a deal to end the Iran war and is pressing for expanded regional recognition as part of that settlement.

Our analysis

The New York Times reports that Trump has been urging a package deal tying an Iran settlement to wider Abraham Accords participation, and quotes regional analysts who call the linkage "bizarre" and say they are "puzzled" by the rationale (New York Times, May 28). France 24 and AP News have reported Trump saying negotiations are "proceeding nicely" and listing Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan as candidates to "immediately" sign onto the accords (France 24, May 26; AP News, May 25). The Independent and The New Arab explain that Egypt and Jordan already recognise Israel and that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have domestic and Palestinian-related objections to normalisation (The Independent, May 26; The New Arab, May 25). Reuters and The Times of Israel note Trump suggested he raised the issue with leaders during talks and even floated the idea that Iran itself could eventually join the accords; Reuters clarifies that Bahrain — not Saudi Arabia — has already signed the accords (Reuters, May 25; Times of Israel, May 25). These pieces collectively show a pattern: Trump is publicly linking two different diplomatic tracks, and regional experts and diplomats quoted across outlets are dismissing the practical logic and warning the linkage will complicate efforts to finalise an Iran agreement.

Go deeper

• Which countries on Trump's list actually already recognise Israel?
• Why is Pakistan unlikely to normalise relations with Israel now?
• How will tying normalisation to the Iran deal affect the chances of a regional settlement?

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