What's happened
The UN World Food Programme has warned that higher oil prices and disrupted trade have pushed an extra 2.5 million people in Somalia, 2.3 million in Afghanistan and 1.3 million in Sri Lanka into acute food insecurity, and that up to 45 million more people globally could face hunger if fuel stays near $100 a barrel through June 2026. The agency has also reported funding shortfalls that are forcing it to cut aid and will leave 1.5 million fewer people served this year.
What's behind the headline?
What is happening
- The World Food Programme has concluded that sustained oil prices around $100 per barrel are already translating into food and fuel price shocks in fragile states. That has pushed millions more into acute food insecurity in Somalia, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
Why it matters
- Higher fuel costs are increasing transport and shipping times, and are driving up the cost of getting food and medical supplies into crisis zones. The WFP is reporting that those higher delivery costs are reducing the number of people it can reach with existing funding.
What is behind the numbers
- The immediate driver is constrained energy flows after strikes in February and continuing instability in the Gulf that have constrained routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. WFP analysis shows those market shocks are interacting with pre-existing vulnerabilities and funding gaps to produce rapid deterioration in food access.
Short-term outlook
- If oil prices remain elevated through June, WFP has estimated up to 45 million additional people globally will be pushed into acute food insecurity. The agency has said it will serve about 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 with current funding and will reduce assistance further if disruptions persist.
Consequences and forecast
- Aid delivery times will continue to lengthen and costs will remain high, which will force humanitarian programmes to prioritise and cut coverage. Agricultural productivity in parts of east Africa will likely fall this planting season because of higher fertilizer and energy costs, producing further shortages six to nine months from now.
How we got here
A regional conflict that began in February has constrained energy flows by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The WFP has linked sustained high oil prices and higher transport costs to rising food prices, reduced aid deliveries and increased operational costs for humanitarian agencies.
Our analysis
The WFP has set out the central case. Acting Executive Director Carl Skau told U.N. reporters that "the correlation between the prices of energy and food is so tight in many places," and that higher prices are forcing people to eat less (AP News; The Independent). Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP's food and nutrition analysis service, told AFP and France 24 that "the negative scenario is unfortunately materialising" and warned that "the closure of Hormuz is translating into increased hunger." France 24 cited WFP projections that nearly 60% of Somali households could be unable to afford essentials in 2026, up from 47% in 2025. Reuters and Al Jazeera reported operational details: fuel and rerouting have increased delivery times from 10 days to as much as 75 days in Afghanistan and have driven up trucking and air freight costs, which the WFP says is reducing reach. Multiple WFP briefings and UN officials have warned that funding cuts mean the agency now expects to serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 and that, if the situation lasts six months, more than 9 million people could lose assistance (France 24; Reuters; Al Jazeera; All Africa).
Go deeper
- How will WFP prioritise who receives food aid?
- Which funding sources are most at risk of cuts to humanitarian aid?
- How will higher fertilizer costs affect harvests in eastern Africa this year?
More on these topics
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Somalia - Country in East Africa
Somalia, officially the Federal Republic of Somalia, is a sovereign country in the Horn of Africa. It is bordered by Ethiopia to the west, the Gulf of Aden to the north, the Guardafui Channel and Somali Sea to the east, and Kenya to the southwest.
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Afghanistan - Country in South Asia
Afghanistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, is a landlocked country at the crossroads of Central and South Asia.
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World Food Programme - Nonprofit organization
The World Food Programme is the food-assistance branch of the United Nations and the world's largest humanitarian organization addressing hunger and promoting food security.
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Sri Lanka - Country in South Asia
Sri Lanka, officially the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, is an island country in South Asia, located in the Indian Ocean southwest of the Bay of Bengal and southeast of the Arabian Sea.
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Strait of Hormuz - Strait
The Strait of Hormuz is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.
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United Nations - Intergovernmental organization
The United Nations is an intergovernmental organization that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations.
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Iran (Islamic Republic of Iran) - Country in the Middle East
Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a
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Middle East - Region
The Middle East is a transcontinental region that generally includes Western Asia, all of Egypt, Iran, and Turkey. Soviet Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are generally excluded.
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UNICEF - Agency
The United Nations Children's Fund is a United Nations agency responsible for providing humanitarian and developmental aid to children worldwide.U.N. headquarters is based in New York City, it is among the most widespread and recognizable social welfare o