What's happened
Projections show 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally between June and February 2027, with Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad bearing the heaviest impact. The Climate Impact Lab says emergency actions now can save tens of thousands of lives as El Niño intensifies.
What's behind the headline?
Analysis
- El Niño’s current intensity is described as potentially the strongest in a millennium, magnifying the climate crisis’s effects on health.
- Projections identify Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad as the most vulnerable, but the broader Global South faces rising risks from heat, droughts and food insecurity.
- Emergency measures are framed as immediate actions (heat warnings, cooling centres, outdoor worker protections) rather than long-term promises, signaling a shift from warning to preparedness.
- The release stresses equity: poorer regions bear the brunt, highlighting gaps in resilience and access to resources.
- The piece anticipates ongoing updates as El Niño evolves and urges readers to consult official guidance and local health advisories for concrete steps.
How we got here
El Niño has intensified globally, with record warm Pacific waters driving extreme heat. A consortium led by the Climate Impact Lab combines temperature forecasts with regional mortality data to estimate excess deaths. The study emphasizes the disproportionate burden on poorer regions with limited cooling options and weaker health infrastructure.
Our analysis
All Africa reports the Africa-focused risk assessments and mortality projections; The Guardian and Al Jazeera summarize the global implications and methodological notes; The New York Post highlights the same death toll with a different framing. Across outlets, Michael Greenstone and Tamma Carleton are cited as researchers, with emphasis on emergency response and adaptation.
Go deeper
- How should households in high-risk regions prepare for peak heat months?
- What actions are local governments taking right now to protect outdoor workers?
- Will global food supply chains adapt to El Niño-induced stresses?
More on these topics
-
Nigeria - Country in West Africa
Nigeria, officially the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is a sovereign country located in West Africa bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.
-
Sudan - Country in North Africa
Sudan, officially the Republic of the Sudan, is a country in North-East Africa. It is bordered by Egypt to the north, Libya to the northwest, Chad to the west, the Central African Republic to the southwest, South Sudan to the south, Ethiopia to the southe
-
El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.
-
Indonesia - Country in Asia
Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia, is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania, between the Indian and Pacific oceans. It consists of more than seventeen thousand islands, including Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Sulawesi, and New Guinea. Indonesia i
-
India - Country in South Asia
India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the second-most populous country, the seventh-largest country by land area, and the most populous democracy in the world.
-
Michael Greenstone - Economist
Michael Greenstone is an American economist and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics, the College, and the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago.
-
University of Chicago - Private university in Chicago, Illinois
The University of Chicago is a private research university in Chicago, Illinois. Founded in 1890, the university is located on a 217-acre campus in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood.
-
Chad - Country in Central Africa
Chad, officially known as the Republic of Chad, is a landlocked country in north-central Africa. It is bordered by Libya to the north, Sudan to the east, the Central African Republic to the south, Cameroon to the south-west, Nigeria to the southwest, and
-
Niger - Country in West Africa
Niger or the Niger, officially the Republic of the Niger, is a landlocked country in West Africa named after the Niger River. Niger is bordered by Libya to the northeast, Chad to the east, Nigeria to the south, Benin to the southwest, Mali to the north-we
-
The Guardian - Newspaper
The Guardian is a British daily newspaper. It was founded in 1821 as The Manchester Guardian, and changed its name in 1959. Along with its sister papers The Observer and The Guardian Weekly, The Guardian is part of the Guardian Media Group, owned by the S
-
United Kingdom - Country in Europe
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom or Britain, is a sovereign country located off the northwestern coast of the European mainland.
-
United States - Country in North America
The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.
-
Vietnam - Country in Asia
Vietnam, officially the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, is a country in Southeast Asia and the easternmost country on the Indochinese Peninsula. With an estimated 96.2 million inhabitants as of 2019, it is the 15th most populous country in the world. Vietn
-
Sahel
The Sahel is the ecoclimatic and biogeographic zone of transition in Africa between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south.
-
Imperial College London - Public university in London, England
Imperial College London is a public research university in London. Dating back to the Royal College of Chemistry's foundation in 1845, Imperial grew out of Prince Albert's vision of an area for culture, including the Royal Albert Hall, Imperial Institute,
-
Cambodia - Country in Asia
Cambodia, officially the Kingdom of Cambodia, is a country located in the southern portion of the Indochina peninsula in Southeast Asia.
-
Philippines - Country in Asia
The Philippines, officially the Republic of the Philippines, is an archipelagic country in Southeast Asia. Situated in the western Pacific Ocean, it consists of about 7,641 islands that are broadly categorized under three main geographical divisions from
-
Thailand - Country in Asia
Thailand, officially the Kingdom of Thailand and formerly known as Siam, is a country in Southeast Asia. Located at the centre of the Indochinese Peninsula, it is composed of 76 provinces, and covers an area of 513,120 square kilometres, and a population
-
University of California, Berkeley - Public university in Berkeley, California
The University of California, Berkeley is a public research university in Berkeley, California. Established in 1868 as the state's first land-grant university, it is the oldest campus of the University of California system and a founding member of the Ass
-
Friederike E.L. Otto - German climatologist
Friederike Elly Luise Otto is a German climatologist who as of January 2021 was Associate Director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford.
-
World Food Programme - Nonprofit organization
The World Food Programme is the food-assistance branch of the United Nations and the world's largest humanitarian organization addressing hunger and promoting food security.