What's happened
Kalshi has partnered with The Weather Company to offer weather-related prediction contracts via Weather Channel platforms. The deal expands access to real-time weather probabilities, aiming to help users and businesses hedge against climate risk while sparking debate over the ethics and practicality of trading on weather events.
What's behind the headline?
Context and implications
- Kalshi’s move threads financial markets with weather data, potentially turning forecasts into tradable opinions.
- The integration with The Weather Company broadens reach to hundreds of millions of users, raising questions about what constitutes reliable forecast data when markets price probability rather than weather itself.
- Critics argue that betting on disasters risks dehumanizing suffering; supporters say markets can illuminate uncertainty and help firms hedge exposure.
Questions for readers
- Will weather markets improve or distort public understanding of climate risk?
- How will regulators address potential manipulation or ethical concerns?
- What safeguards are needed to prevent harm to vulnerable communities?
How we got here
The Weather Company has linked Kalshi’s weather market data to weather.com and the Weather Channel app, enabling bets on daily highs, heatwaves, hurricanes and other climate events. The markets have grown rapidly, with Kalshi reporting a 500% year-over-year increase in its climate and weather vertical and projected trading volume of about $1.1 billion for the year. Critics warn that commodifying disasters could desensitize the public and incentivize manipulation, while supporters see a new tool for understanding and managing weather-related risk.
Our analysis
The Guardian reports Kalshi’s cooperation with The Weather Company and quotes from scientist Kaitlyn Trudeau expressing concerns about dehumanization and detachment from impacts. Bloomberg notes the Weather Company’s role in deploying Kalshi’s real-time probabilities on weather platforms. Independent highlights the growth of weather betting markets and cites critics who warn against monetizing disasters.
Go deeper
- Is this a step toward better risk management or a recipe for exploitation?
- What safeguards would you want if you were a homeowner in a high-risk area?
More on these topics
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Kalshi - American prediction market platform
Kalshi Inc. is a prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City, that launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of site activity and 89% of revenue in 2025. Analysts describe activity on the platform as "heavily tied to the sports calendar". Individuals can place bets on other future outcomes, including economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, political and legislative outcomes, and military conflicts. The site has been involved in several controversies and lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports and election markets, the ethics of allowing wagers on sensitive geopolitical issues, and insider trading involving politicians. Concerns over election integrity and declining public trust in the democratic process caused by election betting have been raised by consumer advocacy groups and politicians. As a result, the United States Senate banned its senators and their staff from betting on prediction markets such as Kalshi in May 2026. According to the site, there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one. John M. Sides has challenged whether Kalshi efficiently and accurately aggregates information...
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Weather Company - Information technology company
The Weather Company is a weather forecasting and information technology company that owns and operates weather.com and Weather Underground. The Weather Company has been a subsidiary of the Watson & Cloud Platform business unit of IBM since 2016.
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Weather Channel - Television channel
The Weather Channel is an American pay television channel owned by the Weather Group, LLC, a subsidiary of Entertainment Studios. The channel's headquarters are in Atlanta, Georgia.
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Polymarket - Online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine
Polymarket is an American financial exchange and the world's largest prediction market, headquartered on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, New York City and offering event contracts.