What's happened
On October 15, 2025, Colonel Michael Randrianirina led a military coup in Madagascar, ousting President Andry Rajoelina amid weeks of youth-led protests over poverty, corruption, and utility outages. Rajoelina fled the country and was impeached for desertion. Randrianirina was sworn in by the High Constitutional Court and pledged a transitional government with elections in 18-24 months. The African Union suspended Madagascar following the coup.
What's behind the headline?
Military Coup Rooted in Youth Discontent
The coup led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina is deeply intertwined with widespread youth frustration in Madagascar. The protests, led by the "Gen Z Madagascar" movement, initially focused on basic service failures like water and electricity but quickly expanded to broader socio-economic grievances including poverty and corruption.
Randrianirina’s Calculated Move
Randrianirina, commander of the elite CAPSAT unit, strategically aligned with protesters, breaking ranks with President Rajoelina. His military background and previous imprisonment for mutiny attempts underscore a long-standing opposition to Rajoelina’s regime. By riding armored vehicles alongside demonstrators, Randrianirina positioned himself as a populist figure, gaining legitimacy among the youth and military alike.
International and Regional Repercussions
The African Union swiftly suspended Madagascar’s membership, condemning the coup and calling for a return to civilian rule. The United Nations expressed deep concern over the unconstitutional power change. Madagascar joins a list of former French colonies in Africa experiencing military takeovers since 2020, highlighting regional instability.
Prospects and Challenges Ahead
Randrianirina promises elections within 18 to 24 months and a transitional government, but historical patterns in Africa suggest military leaders often extend their rule beyond initial timelines. The youth’s hope for systemic reform faces the reality of military governance, which experts doubt can effectively address corruption and social issues.
Impact on Madagascar’s Population
With three-quarters of the population living in poverty and a median age under 20, the coup’s outcome will significantly affect millions. The prolonged instability risks worsening economic conditions and delaying democratic progress, while the youth-led movement’s influence on future elections remains uncertain.
This coup is not merely a power grab but a symptom of deep-rooted socio-political fractures. The international community’s response and Madagascar’s internal dynamics will determine whether this marks a new beginning or a continuation of cyclical instability.
What the papers say
The Independent’s Gerald Imray provides a detailed profile of Colonel Michael Randrianirina, highlighting his southern origins, previous imprisonment for mutiny, and role as CAPSAT commander who led the coup. Al Jazeera reports on Randrianirina’s swearing-in ceremony and his promises for reforms and elections, noting international delegations’ attendance and the African Union’s suspension of Madagascar. The Independent and AP News describe the youth-led protests that sparked the crisis, emphasizing the role of the "Gen Z Madagascar" movement and the initial focus on utility outages expanding to broader grievances.
South China Morning Post and SBS highlight the constitutional crisis, with Rajoelina’s impeachment and flight abroad, and the military’s dissolution of key institutions except the National Assembly. The New Arab and All Africa provide context on Randrianirina’s promises for a "national refoundation" and transitional governance, while also noting skepticism about military governments’ ability to address corruption and social issues.
Together, these sources paint a comprehensive picture of a coup rooted in youth discontent and political instability, with a military leader seeking legitimacy amid international condemnation and uncertain prospects for democratic restoration.
How we got here
Madagascar has a history of political instability and coups since independence from France in 1960. President Andry Rajoelina first came to power in a 2009 military-backed coup and was re-elected in 2018 and 2023 amid controversy. In September 2025, youth-led protests erupted over chronic water and electricity shortages, poverty, and corruption, escalating into nationwide unrest that culminated in the military takeover.
Go deeper
- What led to the youth protests in Madagascar?
- Who is Colonel Michael Randrianirina?
- What is the international response to the coup?
Common question
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What Caused the Madagascar Military Coup?
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