What's happened
On October 18, 2025, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) officially expired amid the reimposition of UN sanctions via the snapback mechanism. Iran declared all deal provisions terminated, suspended cooperation with the IAEA, and rejected sanctions as unjust. Despite ongoing diplomatic rhetoric, nuclear talks remain deadlocked following recent military strikes and mutual accusations.
What's behind the headline?
The Death of the JCPOA and Its Implications
The official expiration of the JCPOA marks a definitive end to a decade-long, fragile attempt to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions through diplomacy. Despite the deal's initial promise, its unraveling was inevitable given the US withdrawal in 2018 and Iran's subsequent nuclear escalation.
Iran's Defiant Posture
Iran's outright rejection of the sanctions and termination of all deal provisions signals a hardened stance. Tehran's suspension of cooperation with the IAEA and refusal to negotiate with European powers who triggered snapback demonstrate a strategic pivot away from multilateral diplomacy.
Regional and Global Security Risks
Iran's enrichment of uranium to 60%, close to weapons-grade levels, combined with its ballistic missile development, heightens proliferation risks. The recent 12-day war with Israel and subsequent strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have further destabilized the region, making renewed conflict more likely.
Diplomatic Deadlock and Future Prospects
While Western powers and Iran express rhetorical openness to diplomacy, mutual distrust—exacerbated by military actions and political infighting—renders near-term negotiations unlikely. The snapback sanctions, though intended to pressure Iran, may instead entrench its defiance.
Impact on the Iranian Economy and Society
Sanctions are deepening Iran's economic crisis, with inflation soaring above 40% and currency devaluation. Domestic unrest, including protests sparked by social issues like the hijab enforcement, compounds governmental challenges.
Forecast
The JCPOA's demise will likely lead to increased nuclear proliferation risks and regional instability. Without a new diplomatic framework, Iran will continue advancing its nuclear program, while Western and regional powers may escalate containment measures, raising the prospect of further conflict.
What the papers say
Al Jazeera's Maziar Motamedi highlights Iran's defiant stance post-snapback sanctions, noting Supreme Leader Khamenei's rejection of US demands and the government's emphasis on nationalist symbolism to rally public support. The article details Iran's economic struggles and internal political tensions, including internet restrictions and morality police enforcement.
The New Arab and Al Jazeera both emphasize the official expiration of the JCPOA on October 18, 2025, framing the snapback sanctions as effectively burying the deal. They cite experts like Kelsey Davenport and Ali Vaez, who describe the deal as "lifeless" and warn that the longer diplomacy stalls, the higher the risk of conflict.
The New York Post reports on Iran's cessation of cooperation with the IAEA, quoting Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani's announcement that Iran is considering invalidating the Cairo Agreement. It also covers Khamenei's dismissal of US claims about damage to Iran's nuclear facilities.
Gulf News provides detailed context on the sanctions' scope, including asset freezes and arms bans, and underscores Iran's uranium enrichment nearing weapons-grade levels. It also notes Iran's reliance on Russia and China for political and military support amid increasing isolation.
New Zealand's reimposition of sanctions, as reported by The New Arab, reflects the broader international consensus on Iran's non-compliance, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters urging Iran to resume IAEA cooperation.
Together, these sources paint a comprehensive picture of a nuclear deal that has collapsed amid escalating tensions, economic hardship, and geopolitical maneuvering, with little immediate prospect for resolution.
How we got here
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was designed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The US withdrew in 2018 under President Trump, reinstating sanctions. Iran then expanded its nuclear activities. After years of failed negotiations and Iran's non-cooperation with the IAEA, European powers triggered the snapback mechanism in September 2025, reimposing UN sanctions and effectively ending the deal.
Go deeper
- What led to the collapse of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal?
- How are the new UN sanctions affecting Iran's economy and politics?
- What are the prospects for renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran?
Common question
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What Does Iran's Nuclear Deal Collapse Mean for the Middle East?
Iran's decision to end the 2015 nuclear deal marks a significant shift in regional and global politics. With the deal's collapse, questions arise about the future of diplomacy, regional stability, and international relations. Below, we explore the key questions surrounding this development and what it could mean for the Middle East and beyond.
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What Does the End of the Iran Nuclear Deal Mean for Global Security?
The official end of the Iran nuclear deal marks a significant shift in international diplomacy and security. With Iran suspending cooperation with the IAEA and reimposing sanctions, many are wondering what this means for global stability. Will tensions escalate further? How are world powers responding? Below, we explore the key questions surrounding this critical development and what it could mean for the future of nuclear diplomacy.
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What Are the Global Implications of Iran's Nuclear Move?
Iran's recent decision to end the 2015 nuclear deal and escalate its uranium enrichment has significant repercussions worldwide. This move raises questions about potential sanctions, regional stability, and future diplomacy. Below, we explore the key questions surrounding Iran's nuclear actions and what they mean for the international community.
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What Does the End of the Iran Nuclear Deal Mean for Global Security?
The official expiration of the Iran nuclear deal in October 2025 marks a significant shift in international relations and security. With Iran suspending cooperation with the IAEA and rejecting sanctions, many are asking what this means for global stability. Will tensions escalate? Are diplomatic talks still possible? Here are the key questions and answers to understand this complex situation.
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What Are the Global Implications of the End of the Iran Nuclear Deal?
The official end of the Iran nuclear deal marks a significant shift in international diplomacy and security. With Iran terminating its commitments and reimposing sanctions, many are asking what this means for global stability, nuclear proliferation, and future diplomacy. Below, we explore the key questions surrounding this critical development and what it could mean for the world moving forward.
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How Are International Tensions Shaping the Future of Global Diplomacy?
Recent developments in international relations, such as the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal and US-China tech restrictions, are significantly impacting global diplomacy. These tensions raise questions about the future of diplomatic negotiations, the role of sanctions, and the potential for conflict. Below, we explore the key issues shaping the geopolitical landscape today and what they mean for the future of international cooperation.
More on these topics
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Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a
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The United Nations is an intergovernmental organization that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations.
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The International Atomic Energy Agency is an international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and to inhibit its use for any military purpose, including nuclear weapons.
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Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
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The European Union is a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe. Its members have a combined area of 4,233,255.3 km² and an estimated total population of about 447 million.
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The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal or Iran deal, is an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program reached in Vienna on July 14, 2015, between Iran and the P5+1 together with the European Union.
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Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.
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The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.