Iran holds firm over Hormuz terms

What's happened

Iran has said it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Washington meets seven conditions drawn from the Islamabad memorandum, after Qatari mediators delivered a US reply. Tehran is continuing to trade messages through intermediaries, while US officials and presidential envoys have discussed options publicly and privately.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening now

• Iran is refusing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until its seven conditions, based on the Islamabad memorandum, are met. Tehran is treating the strait first and nuclear issues later.
• The US has replied to Iran’s proposal through intermediaries and has also discussed responses publicly via President Trump and envoys, but the parties remain at an impasse.

Why this matters

• The Strait of Hormuz previously carried about a fifth of global oil and LNG. Continued closure or disruption will keep upward pressure on energy prices and inflation globally.
• Military tension is rising: Iran is threatening stronger responses if the US resumes large-scale strikes, and US defence planners are preparing options.

Who is driving the process

• Tehran is setting the negotiation agenda by insisting on sequencing: first security and reopening of Hormuz, then wider issues.
• Washington is prioritising nuclear constraints in its public stance, creating a core disagreement over sequencing.
• Qatar and other regional mediators (Pakistan, Oman) are relaying messages but have not closed the gap.

Likely next steps

• Diplomatic shuttle diplomacy will continue. Mediators will pass proposals back and forth while each side tests domestic and regional political reaction.
• If the US maintains a hard insistence on tackling nuclear issues first, negotiations will stall and attacks on shipping will continue.
• If the US offers concrete concessions on sanctions or steps to lift the naval counter‑blockade, Iran will demand verification mechanisms and guarantees before allowing normal passage.

Forecast

• The impasse will keep energy markets volatile and will increase the probability of further maritime incidents. Military planners on both sides will continue contingency preparations, which will raise the risk of miscalculation and a wider escalation.

How we got here

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, triggering a war that has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A June Islamabad memorandum produced a brief ceasefire. Iran presented a seven‑point roadmap at the UN and has been exchanging mediated messages with the US via Qatar and others.

Our analysis

Iranian state media and officials have presented a unified stance. Nour News and Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have said: "The Strait of Hormuz will not open until our seven conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum are met" (reported by Al Jazeera and Arab News). Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told diplomats in Tehran that Iran is "serious about finding diplomatic solutions just as we are serious about defending ourselves" (Al Jazeera). Those statements emphasise Iran’s sequencing demand: security and reopening first. US coverage and statements show a mixed public posture. The New Arab quoted President Trump saying his envoy Steve Witkoff "was making progress in negotiations with Iran" but that "making a deal is not the option I want"; the president also wrote that the US is "having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran" (The New Arab). Reuters, CNBC and others reported that the US had formally replied to Iran via Qatari intermediaries and that Pentagon planners have been told to prepare military options (The Atlantic, Axios cited in The New Arab and CNBC). Those reports indicate parallel tracks: public diplomacy that continues through mediators and behind‑the‑scenes contingency planning. On the maritime front, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported attacks on tankers near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz, showing the dispute is producing tangible damage at sea (CNBC). Iranian officials described their own military posture more starkly: Araghchi warned Iran will "take whatever action is necessary to defend ourselves," and Guards spokespeople described ongoing strikes on vessels attempting passage (Al Jazeera, The New Arab). These operational details underline that the dispute is producing both diplomatic traffic and kinetic incidents. Readers seeking the primary sources should consult: Al Jazeera for Iran’s official statements and quotes from Araghchi and Ghalibaf; The New Arab for the White House and Trump remarks; CNBC and Reuters for reporting on tanker

Go deeper

• What exactly are Iran’s seven conditions drawn from the Islamabad memorandum?
• How many commercial vessels have been damaged or blocked in the strait since February?
• What concrete concessions could the US offer that would satisfy Iran’s sequencing demand?

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