What's happened
As of November 2025, the UN's Emissions Gap Report reveals that current national climate pledges will lead to a 2.3-2.5°C global temperature rise by 2100, surpassing Paris Agreement targets. Despite some progress, global emissions rose 2.3% in 2024. China's new 2035 goals mark its first specific emissions reduction target but fall short of what's needed. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement threatens to negate recent gains ahead of COP30 in Brazil.
What's behind the headline?
Global Climate Commitments Fall Short
Despite repeated pledges, the world is on track for a temperature rise exceeding 2°C by 2100, with current policies insufficient to meet Paris targets. The UN's Emissions Gap Report highlights a persistent gap between ambition and action, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
China's Role: Ambitious Yet Insufficient
China's first explicit emissions reduction target for 2035 signals a shift but remains below the 30% cut experts deem necessary. Its rapid expansion of renewable energy infrastructure offers hope but also underscores the scale of transformation required.
US Absence and Global Diplomacy
The US absence at COP30, under a climate-skeptic administration, removes a major obstacle but introduces uncertainty. Other nations cautiously advance negotiations, wary of potential diplomatic pushback.
Scientific Warnings and Carbon Removal
Leading scientists warn that even with aggressive emissions cuts, global temperatures will likely overshoot 1.5°C, necessitating large-scale carbon removal technologies. These solutions are costly, complex, and carry risks, emphasizing the urgency of immediate emissions reductions.
Political Dynamics and Public Sentiment
Populist and right-wing movements challenge climate action globally, yet public concern remains high. Progressive leaders advocate climate policy as a rallying cause, framing it as essential for economic growth and future generations.
Outlook
COP30 will test international resolve amid scientific urgency and political complexity. Without significant acceleration in emissions reductions and cooperation, the world faces escalating climate impacts with profound global consequences.
What the papers say
The Guardian's Oliver Milman reports on the US's absence from COP30, describing it as a relief for other delegates but a source of diplomatic caution due to potential US interference. Fiona Harvey highlights the Amazon's tipping point risks and the geopolitical divides shaping the summit, emphasizing the urgency to hold warming to 1.5°C. Jonathan Watts details scientific consensus on the necessity of carbon removal to limit warming, noting the high costs and risks involved. The Independent and Reuters focus on China's new 2035 climate goals, acknowledging their ambition but pointing out they fall short of what's needed to meet Paris targets. UNEP's Emissions Gap Report, covered by All Africa and France 24, underscores the insufficient global progress, projecting a 2.3-2.5°C rise by 2100 and warning of inevitable overshoot of 1.5°C. Politico and AP News echo these findings, stressing that new national plans barely reduce projected warming and that US policy reversals threaten to negate gains. The New York Times contextualizes these projections within the broader failure to meet Paris goals, highlighting the real-world risks of additional warming. Together, these sources paint a comprehensive picture of a climate crisis deepening amid political challenges and scientific urgency, setting the stage for a pivotal COP30 summit in Brazil.
How we got here
The 2015 Paris Agreement set goals to limit global warming to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C, above preindustrial levels. Countries must update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years to reduce emissions. Ahead of COP30 in Brazil, the world faces rising emissions, political divisions, and the challenge of avoiding catastrophic climate tipping points.
Go deeper
- What are the main obstacles to meeting the Paris Agreement goals?
- How does China's 2035 climate plan impact global emissions?
- What role does the US withdrawal play in global climate negotiations?
Common question
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Why Is the Climate Crisis Worsening Despite Efforts?
Despite global efforts to combat climate change, the emissions gap continues to widen. Countries have made commitments, but progress remains slow, and current policies are falling short of targets. This raises important questions about what’s really happening and what needs to be done now. Below, we explore the latest reports and what they mean for our planet’s future.
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Are Current Climate Plans Enough to Stop Global Warming?
With the UN warning that current climate commitments are falling short, many are asking: are the world’s efforts enough to prevent dangerous warming? From national targets to individual actions, explore whether we’re on track to meet climate goals and what more needs to be done to tackle the climate crisis effectively.
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Are Countries Doing Enough to Fight the Climate Crisis?
Despite global efforts, the fight against climate change remains challenging. Current pledges and policies are falling short of the targets set by the Paris Agreement, raising questions about whether nations are truly doing enough. With emissions rising and key players like the US and China impacting progress, it's crucial to understand what needs to happen before COP30 to accelerate climate action. Below, we explore the latest insights and what can be done to close the gap.
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Why Is the Climate Crisis Worsening Despite International Efforts?
Despite global commitments like the Paris Agreement, the climate crisis continues to deepen. Emissions are rising, and key targets are being missed. Curious about why efforts aren't enough and what can be done? Below, we explore the reasons behind the worsening climate situation and what steps are needed moving forward.
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What Are the Biggest News Stories Today?
Stay updated with the latest headlines shaping our world today. From climate crises and cultural thefts to weather disasters and economic shifts, these stories are crucial to understanding what's happening now. Curious about how these events connect or what they mean for the future? Keep reading for clear, concise answers to your top questions.
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Why Is the Climate Crisis Worsening Despite International Efforts?
Despite global commitments like the Paris Agreement and recent efforts at COP30, the climate crisis continues to deepen. Emissions are rising, and targets are being missed. Curious about why progress is so slow and what the future holds? Below, we explore the key reasons behind the worsening climate situation and what it means for us all.
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