What's happened
The Kalshi lead has launched perpetual futures in the US after CFTC approval, fueling debate over onshore regulation. CME Group plans litigation against the CFTC, arguing perps are swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act, while Kalshi expands offerings and trader interest surges.
What's behind the headline?
Background context
- Kalshi has begun offering bitcoin perpetual futures in the US after CFTC approval in May.
- The product allows trading on prices without owning the asset or expiring contracts.
- The move follows a broader push to bring digital-asset trading into US oversight.
Immediate implications
- A surge in domestic interest, with Kalshi reporting a rapid rise in notional volume during beta.
- CME Group is preparing legal action, arguing the decision misclassifies perpetual futures as swaps.
Strategic angles
- Regulators aim to balance innovation with safety, expanding onshore capability while safeguarding consumers.
- Traders gain access to a regulated US venue for perps, potentially shifting volume from offshore venues.
How we got here
Regulators have greenlit perpetual futures in the US for the first time, triggering a wave of product launches and legal pushback. Kalshi received regulatory approval to list perpetual futures; CME Group prepares to challenge the decision, claiming an onshore, regulated path is essential for the market’s growth.
Our analysis
CNBC (Kalshi launches perps; regulatory context), CNBC (Selig defends onshore perps), CNBC (Duffy outlines CME lawsuit).
Go deeper
- Will US traders shift more activity to Kalshi as onshore perps grow?
- What protections will regulators require for perpetual futures?
- How might CME’s lawsuit influence future approvals?
More on these topics
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CNBC - Television channel
CNBC is an American pay television business news channel that is owned by NBCUniversal Worldwide News Group, a division of NBCUniversal, with both being ultimately owned by Comcast.
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Kalshi - American prediction market platform
Kalshi Inc. is a prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City, that launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of site activity and 89% of revenue in 2025. Analysts describe activity on the platform as "heavily tied to the sports calendar". To a lesser extent, users also trade on future events outside of sports, including economic indicators, cultural events, technological developments, and political outcomes. The site has been involved in several controversies and lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports and election markets, the ethics of allowing wagers on sensitive geopolitical issues, and insider trading involving politicians. Concerns over election integrity and declining public trust in the democratic process caused by election betting have been raised by consumer advocacy groups and politicians. As a result, the United States Senate banned its senators and their staff from betting on prediction markets such as Kalshi in May 2026. Scholars have challenged whether Kalshi efficiently and accurately aggregates information about outcomes. Kalshi does not publicly disclose its total number of users...
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CME Group - Foreign exchange company
CME Group Inc. is an American global markets company. It is the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, and trades in asset classes that include agricultural products, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals, stock indexes and cryptocurrencies
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CFTC - Agency
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is an independent agency of the US government created in 1974, that regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, which includes futures, swaps, and certain kinds of options.