What's happened
In late November 2025, a Soyuz rocket launch from Baikonur Cosmodrome successfully delivered three astronauts to the ISS but caused significant damage to the launchpad's service cabin. Roscosmos has begun repairs, aiming to restore the pad by February 2026. The incident has prompted NASA to advance Dragon supply missions to mitigate potential supply gaps. Meanwhile, SpaceX's Starship V3 booster suffered a critical failure during ground testing, delaying its development.
What's behind the headline?
Impact on Russian Spaceflight
The damage to Baikonur's Site 31 launchpad represents a critical setback for Russia's crewed spaceflight capabilities. As the only pad configured for Soyuz and Progress launches, its downtime threatens Russia's ability to maintain regular ISS missions and cargo deliveries. Roscosmos' commitment to repair by February 2026 is ambitious given winter conditions and resource constraints amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
NASA's Strategic Response
NASA's decision to advance Dragon CRS-34 and CRS-35 supply missions reflects prudent contingency planning. With Progress missions delayed until at least March 2026, the US and its partners are ensuring ISS resupply continuity through alternative vehicles like SpaceX's Dragon, Northrop Grumman's Cygnus, and Japan's HTV-X.
Broader Geopolitical and Industrial Context
The incident underscores the fragility of Russia's space infrastructure amid economic pressures and war-related resource diversion. It also highlights the enduring importance of international cooperation on the ISS despite strained relations. Concurrently, SpaceX's Starship V3 booster failure during ground testing signals challenges in the US commercial space sector's ambitious lunar program timeline.
Forecast
Russia's ability to meet the February repair target will be a litmus test of its commitment to ISS partnership and civil space priorities. Delays beyond this could force greater reliance on US and international supply vehicles. SpaceX's setback may push lunar mission timelines further, but its rapid development ethos suggests recovery is likely. Overall, the spaceflight landscape in early 2026 will be shaped by these infrastructure and programmatic challenges.
What the papers say
The Moscow Times reports that Roscosmos has received all necessary replacement parts and begun structural preparations to repair Baikonur's damaged service cabin, aiming for operational status by February 2026. According to Eric Berger at Ars Technica, NASA has advanced Dragon supply missions CRS-34 and CRS-35 to May and August 2026 respectively, in direct response to the Baikonur incident, while Progress missions have been delayed until March 2026. Berger also notes the logistical challenges Russia faces due to winter conditions and resource diversion to the Ukraine conflict. The New York Times highlights the severity of the damage, quoting Anatoly Zak describing the service platform as "heavily damaged" and likely needing rebuilding. Meanwhile, SpaceX's Starship V3 booster suffered a structural failure during ground testing in Texas, as detailed by Eric Berger and the Independent, delaying the booster’s test campaign and potentially impacting NASA's Artemis lunar program. The Moscow Times and NY Post cover the removal of veteran cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev from a SpaceX Crew-12 mission amid espionage allegations, adding to the complex dynamics within Russia's space program. These sources collectively illustrate a period of operational strain and transition for Russian and US spaceflight efforts.
How we got here
Baikonur Cosmodrome, Russia's primary crewed launch site located in Kazakhstan, has been central to spaceflight since the Soviet era. Chronic underfunding and geopolitical tensions since 2014 have hampered modernization efforts. The recent damage occurred during a Soyuz MS-28 launch, which was the only operational pad for Soyuz and Progress missions after the historic Site 1 was decommissioned.
Go deeper
- How will the Baikonur launchpad damage affect future ISS missions?
- What are NASA's plans to mitigate supply disruptions caused by the Baikonur incident?
- What caused the failure of SpaceX's Starship V3 booster during testing?
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