Middle East oil flows rebound

What's happened

Maritime trackers have reported that Middle East crude exports have returned to near or above pre‑war levels in late September. Ship‑to‑ship transfers, US naval escorts and pipeline bypasses — notably Saudi Arabia's East‑West line and UAE links to Fujairah — have restored large volumes, but attacks on tankers and high insurance and freight costs are persisting.

What's behind the headline?

What the data is actually showing

• Kpler and other maritime trackers have reported that crude exports from the Middle East have matched or exceeded pre‑war daily averages on multiple days in late September. Shipments that once flowed directly through the Strait of Hormuz are now moving by alternative routes or in staged transfers.

How flows are being kept up

• Saudi Arabia has increased exports through its East‑West pipeline to the Red Sea (Yanbu) and the UAE has been using pipelines to Fujairah. These overland routes are moving a much larger share of crude than before the conflict.
• Large "shuttle" tankers are moving crude into the Gulf of Oman and transferring cargoes ship‑to‑ship to other vessels offshore, reducing exposure to strikes nearer Iran's coast.
• The US Navy and allied forces are providing escorts and air cover for some transits, and that protection is being factored into routing decisions.

Why this recovery is fragile

• Attacks are continuing. UKMTO and shipping services have reported daily incidents in early October, including projectiles striking tankers and hailings by Iran's IRGC. Casualties and damage have been recorded even as volumes rise.
• Costs remain elevated. Analysts in the coverage point to higher freight, insurance and security bills. Those costs will reduce margins for exporters and raise downstream fuel prices.
• Refined products are still constrained. Multiple trackers show refined product shipments (diesel, jet fuel) remain well below pre‑war levels, which is pushing retail fuel prices even as crude volumes rise.

Strategic and market consequences

• Producers are prioritising crude export volumes now because the alternative — leaving oil inland or idle — would squeeze sovereign revenues. This will keep exporters focused on maximising shipments while the workarounds hold.
• The current pattern will force permanent changes in logistics: pipelines and offshore transfers will remain more prominent, and some trade lanes will carry a higher risk premium.
• If attacks escalate or US policy on escorts changes, exports will fall quickly. The recovery will therefore reverse faster than it was built.

Forecast

• Expect crude flows to fluctuate with security incidents and diplomatic moves; sustained export recovery will require either a durable political deal or a long‑term security framework. Without that, exporters will keep using costly, complex routes and markets will price that risk into fuel costs.

How we got here

The US‑Israel war on Iran has constricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since February. Producers have adapted by moving oil via Saudi and Emirati pipelines, using shuttle tankers for offshore transfers and relying on US military escorts. Iran and the US continue to contest control of the waterway.

Our analysis

Al Jazeera has reported detailed Kpler figures and recent incidents, noting that Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to more than 81% of pre‑war levels in September and that "about 40 percent of oil exports now bypass the strait"; Usaid Siddiqui highlighted attacks such as the Panama‑flagged tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz and the MT Kazimah III fire. The BBC has emphasised the combination of US escorts, shuttle tankers and pipeline bypasses, reporting Kpler's seven‑day averages and satellite imagery of ship‑to‑ship transfers near Oman. Arab News and CNBC have focused on market effects: Arab News quoted Priyanka Sachdeva that "calling this a full normalisation of supply doesn't look justified" because of renewed attacks and higher costs, while CNBC and others noted that G7 reserve releases and higher Saudi exports are capping prices for now. The Guardian and The New Arab stressed that refined products remain constrained — the Guardian gave Kpler's figure that refined shipments through Hormuz are far below pre‑war levels — and warned that the recovery rests on expensive, less efficient workarounds. Together the coverage shows agreement on the mechanics (pipelines, ship‑to‑ship transfers, US escorts) but different emphases: Al Jazeera and BBC foreground security incidents and tanker damage; market outlets (CNBC, Arab News) foreground price effects and reserve releases; analysts quoted across outlets warn the recovery is conditional and costly.

Go deeper

• How are insurance rates and freight premiums changing for tankers serving Gulf routes?
• Which pipelines and terminals are carrying the largest extra volumes and for how long can they run at current rates?

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