Who will control the Strait?

What's happened

The US and Iran have signed a preliminary agreement and opened a 60-day negotiating window that has paused charges through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman have formed a working group to study future administration and service fees. Shipping has begun to return but remains well below prewar levels while demining and safety work continues.

What's behind the headline?

What is actually changing

• The US and Iran have signed a preliminary ceasefire framework and opened a 60‑day negotiating window. That window has already paused any planned transit charges through the strait but it has not resolved who will administer the route after the period ends.

Who holds leverage

• Iran holds the strongest leverage. It physically closed the strait during the conflict and has created a national authority, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, to register vessels and outline fees. Iran's negotiators, led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have said the strait "will never return" to its prewar status.

How other states are responding

• Oman is negotiating with Iran and has publicly affirmed "toll‑free safe passage" while agreeing a joint working group to study services and costs. The United States is publicly rejecting any tolls; Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said international law forbids tolls and the US will oppose them.

Practical constraints and near‑term outlook

• International law prevents unilateral tolls on international shipping lanes, but allows charges for specific services (inspections, navigation assistance, security). Expect Iran to frame any levies as "service fees," not tolls, and to push for negotiated payments tied to security and demining work.
• Shipping is returning but remains well below prewar traffic. Demining, route verification and insurance disputes will keep throughput restricted for months. The IMO has begun coordinated evacuations and temporary corridors, but the main central channel remains hazardous.

Consequences

• If Iran secures a formal role in administering services and extracts fees, shipping costs and insurance premiums will rise and global energy and commodity prices will experience upward pressure.
• If the US and partners block any fee regime, diplomatic and economic pressure on Oman and other littoral states will increase and security operations in the Gulf will intensify.

Forecast

• Negotiations will conclude the 60‑day window with partial technical agreements but not a final settlement. Major powers will press for a multilateral governance or oversight mechanism. True restoration of prewar traffic will take months after demining, insurance stabilization and a clear administrative arrangement are in place.

How we got here

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz after the US–Israel war began in February, choking a key energy route. The US has imposed a naval blockade and sanctions; last week Washington and Tehran agreed a memorandum of understanding that pauses charges for 60 days and calls for talks with Oman and other Gulf states on managing navigation and maritime services.

Our analysis

The reporting presents two clear strands. Al Jazeera has emphasised Iran's plan to suspend transit fees for 60 days while talks continue and quoted Iran's negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying Hormuz "will never return" to its prewar status. Al Jazeera also noted that the Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced the temporary suspension of fees during negotiations and that the IMO and Oman are coordinating evacuations and temporary measures. Reuters framed the Muscat talks as implementing the memorandum of understanding and reported that Oman and Iran reaffirmed commitments to safe passage while underlining sovereignty over territorial waters. The New York Times (Michael Crowley) and several Western outlets record strong US opposition to any tolls, citing Marco Rubio's statement that "no country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway" and describing Tehran's language distinguishing "service fees" from tolls. The Times of Israel and The New Arab highlighted diplomatic activity across the region and quoted Iranian leaders rejecting talks over ballistic missiles, with The New Arab noting Tehran's denials of claims about IAEA inspections. The New York Post and The Independent stressed the commercial and insurance implications, reporting that Iran has set up an authority to register vessels and that Western underwriters have resisted compliance. Taken together, the sources show a stark division: Iran and Oman are discussing an administrative role and possible fees; the US and many Gulf partners are publicly opposing any toll regime and are pushing security and legal arguments to preserve toll‑free transit.

Go deeper

• Will the 60‑day negotiating window produce a binding multilateral administration for the strait?
• How will insurers and ship operators respond if Iran reintroduces service fees after 60 days?

More on these topics

• Iran (Islamic Republic of Iran) - Country in the Middle East

  Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a

• Oman - Country in the Middle East

  Oman, officially the Sultanate of Oman, is a country on the southeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula in Western Asia. Located in a strategically important position at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the country shares land borders with the United Arab E

• Strait of Hormuz - Strait

  The Strait of Hormuz is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.

• United States - Country in North America

  The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.

• Marco Rubio - United States Senator

  Marco Antonio Rubio is an American attorney and politician currently serving as the senior United States Senator from Florida. A Republican, Rubio previously served as Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives.

• Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf - Speaker of the Parliament of Iran

  Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is an Iranian conservative politician and former military officer who held office as the Mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017.

• Pakistan - Country in South Asia

  Pakistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, is a country in South Asia. It is the world's fifth-most populous country with a population exceeding 212.2 million. It is the 33rd-largest country by area, spanning 881,913 square kilometres.

• International Maritime Organization - Agency

  The International Maritime Organization until 1982, is a specialised agency of the United Nations responsible for regulating shipping.

• Gaza - Wikimedia disambiguation page

  Gaza most commonly refers to: Gaza Strip, a Palestinian territory on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea Gaza City, a city in the Gaza Strip Gaza may also refer to:

• Isfahan - City in Iran

  Isfahan, historically also rendered in English as Ispahan, Sepahan, Esfahan or Hispahan, is a city in Iran. It is located 406 kilometres south of Tehran and is the capital of Isfahan Province.

• Natanz - City in Iran

  Natanz is a city and capital of Natanz County, Isfahan Province, Iran. At the 2006 census, its population was 12,060, in 3,411 families. It is located 70 kilometres south-east of Kashan. Its bracing climate and locally produced fruit are well known in Ira

• Israel - Country in the Middle East

  Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.

• Lebanon - Country in the Middle East

  Lebanon, officially known as the Lebanese Republic, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered by Syria to the north and east and Israel to the south, while Cyprus lies west across the Mediterranean Sea.

• Qatar - Country in the Middle East

  Qatar, officially the State of Qatar, is a country located in Western Asia, occupying the small Qatar Peninsula on the northeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula.

• Switzerland - Country in Europe

  Switzerland, officially the Swiss Confederation, is a country situated in the confluence of Western, Central, and Southern Europe. It is a federal republic composed of 26 cantons, with federal authorities based in Bern.

• Al-Jazeera - Media company

  Al Jazeera is an international Arabic news channel based in Doha, Qatar that is operated by the media conglomerate Al Jazeera Media Network.

• United Arab Emirates - Country in the Middle East

  The United Arab Emirates, sometimes simply called the Emirates, is a sovereign state in Western Asia at the northeast end of the Arabian Peninsula on the Persian Gulf, bordering Oman to the east and Saudi Arabia to the south and west, as well as sharing m