What's happened
Iraq has completed the withdrawal of US forces from major bases, marking the end of the coalition mission to defeat ISIS. Iraqi authorities say security tasks are being assumed domestically, while regional partners warn of gaps in defense capabilities amid ongoing threats from militias and Iranian-backed groups.
What's behind the headline?
Key Developments
- The withdrawal signals a strategic shift as Iraq moves to assume primary security responsibilities. The closure of major bases in Irbil and other hubs shifts the burden to Iraqi security forces and Peshmerga, with ongoing vigilance required against remnants of ISIS and Iranian-backed militias.
- Diplomatic risk remains as regional actors recalibrate: Iran and its allies may adapt to the reduced coalition footprint, while the Kurdistan region faces defense gaps without US air defense assets.
- Public expectations rest on the ability of Iraqi institutions to maintain stability and prevent a resurgence of ISIS as foreign training and intelligence support recedes.
Forecast
- Iraq will accelerate efforts to consolidate security control with international partners focusing on capacity-building rather than direct military engagement. This will increase pressure on Iraqi forces to demonstrate sovereignty and effectiveness in counterterrorism and border security.
How we got here
The US-led coalition has maintained forces in Iraq since 2014 to combat Isis. A two-year phased withdrawal began following a 2024 agreement with Baghdad to wind down the mission, with combat operations formally ending by September 2025 and full withdrawal by September 2026. The Kurdish region relies on external defense support amid drone and missile threats.
Our analysis
- Al Jazeera reports that US withdrawal ends a 12-year coalition mission; highlights Kurdish concerns about defense gaps. - BBC Business notes the Irbil exit and government statements about Iraq’s transition to sovereignty; mentions four Sovereignty Days. - New York Post frames the withdrawal as a milestone marking a shift to Iraqi-led security with a caveat on militia disarmament.
Go deeper
- What concrete steps will Iraq take to close security gaps after the US withdrawal?
- How might Iranian-backed militias respond to the reduced coalition footprint?
- What does this imply for Kurdish regional defense and air defense capabilities?
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