Super El Niño raises global risks

What's happened

Meteorological agencies and the UN have reported a very strong El Niño that has continued to intensify in August 2026. Forecasts show record-warm Pacific sea-surface temperatures, rising global heat and an elevated risk of droughts, floods and food insecurity that will push tens of millions more people into acute hunger this year and next.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening

• A very strong El Niño has developed over the tropical Pacific and has continued to strengthen through August 2026. Sea-surface temperatures are at levels not seen since the early 1980s and could reach or exceed records for the post‑1950 period.

What this will do

• This will increase the odds of hotter, drier conditions in southern Africa and parts of South and Southeast Asia, and wetter conditions with flood risk in parts of Central America and the Caribbean. The World Food Programme has calculated that around 49 million additional people will face acute food insecurity in the worst‑affected 45 countries, raising the total to roughly 274 million.

Economic and humanitarian consequences

• Crop shortfalls in multiple regions will raise local food prices and strain supply chains. Governments will face higher emergency relief costs and must scale anticipatory action now to avoid larger humanitarian responses later.

Forecast and next steps

• El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026 and its effects will carry into 2027, influencing planting and harvest seasons. National authorities will need to accelerate drought and flood preparedness, prioritise seed and cash assistance and protect critical infrastructure.

Bottom line

• The climate drivers that are converging this year will force policymakers to act now. Early, targeted interventions will reduce losses and save lives; delayed responses will multiply costs and deepen food crises.

How we got here

El Niño is a periodic warming of central and eastern Pacific surface waters that alters global weather. Scientists have reported unusually high sea-surface temperatures this summer, and the World Meteorological Organization and WFP have linked the event to higher global temperatures and increased risks to harvests, water supplies and disaster readiness.

Our analysis

The coverage has two clear threads. The United Nations and humanitarian agencies focus on food security and numbers: Jean‑Martin Bauer at the World Food Programme warned that "these are events that in the past have triggered large‑scale hunger" (New York Post; also reported by The Guardian and The Independent), and WFP briefings have estimated an extra 49 million people could face acute hunger across 45 vulnerable countries (All Africa; Bloomberg). Meteorological outlets have emphasised the scale of the ocean warming and the climatology: the World Meteorological Organization and analyses reported by BBC Business and The Japan Times note an 81% chance of a very strong event and warn that sea‑surface temperatures are the warmest since at least 1982. Regional reporting has linked the system to specific national risks: the BBC quoted meteorologists and MPs urging the UK to prepare for a wet winter, while SBS and other outlets warned Australia will face a ‘‘double’’ or ‘‘triple’’ whammy when El Niño combines with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and background warming. Separate science and regional pieces illustrate practical applications and consequences: University of Delaware researchers are testing shark‑borne sensors to collect ocean temperature and salinity data that could improve hurricane intensity forecasts (New York Post, France 24). Taken together, the sources show consistent scientific concern (WMO, national meteorological services) and a humanitarian alarm (WFP); reporting differs in emphasis — some outlets foreground economic and market impacts (Bloomberg), others foreground national preparedness and ecological effects (BBC, SBS, The Guardian).

Go deeper

• Which countries should prioritise anticipatory food assistance this autumn?
• How will peak El Niño affect global food prices and supply chains?
• Can improved ocean observation (for example animal‑borne sensors) change hurricane or crop forecasts in time?

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