Gaza recovery plan stalled

What's happened

A US-backed Board of Peace has presented a six-month, $2.45bn, 66-project recovery plan for Gaza but implementation has not started. Israel has expanded control over much of the Strip, Hamas has not fully disarmed, donor pledges remain largely unpaid and international forces and Palestinian technocrats have not entered to begin reconstruction.

What's behind the headline?

What the plan actually proposes

• The Board of Peace has costed 66 projects for six months, with $2.45bn up front and an estimated $71.4bn needed over a decade. Projects cover temporary housing, rubble clearance, hospital repairs, water and power, border crossings and a multinational security contingent.

Why it is not moving

• Israel is holding and expanding forces inside Gaza and has increased the area under its control from the agreed withdrawal line to roughly 60–70%. That control is preventing the Board and the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) from taking up their roles.
• Hamas has agreed in principle to a disarmament document but has not surrendered weapons in a verifiable way. Israel insists on full demilitarisation before withdrawal; the Board and mediators insist on phased, reciprocal steps. That contradiction is stopping the sequence the plan requires.
• Donor funding is insufficient. Governments have pledged large sums but transferred only a fraction; the Board reported $18bn pledged and about $280m delivered for reconstruction efforts.

Who benefits now

• Israel gains tactical depth by extending control over territory and by conditioning progress on Hamas disarmament. The Board of Peace and allied donors gain political cover for producing reconstruction plans but lack leverage to implement them without Israeli consent and verified disarmament.

Likely near-term outcomes

• The recovery program will remain on paper until after Israel's election cycle and until either Israel agrees to phased steps or a new political arrangement changes Jerusalem's stance. Humanitarian needs will deepen: tent camps and damaged infrastructure will persist and large-scale rebuilding will not begin this winter.

Consequences beyond Gaza

• Continued paralysis will harden regional tensions, reduce international appetite to invest at scale, and make a long-term political solution more difficult to negotiate. Failure to deploy the international stabilisation force will leave security vacuum risks that will sustain violence and displacement.

How we got here

Negotiators reached a 20-point ceasefire a year ago that halted large-scale fighting and secured hostage releases. The plan envisions Gaza governed by a technocratic National Committee overseen by the Board of Peace, Hamas disarmament and an international stabilisation force before reconstruction can proceed. Those steps have stalled amid Israeli objections and political obstacles.

Our analysis

The reporting shows consistent facts and divergent framings. Axios obtained the 66-project plan and summarised its components: "Infrastructure accounts for the largest share... roughly $400m for temporary shelters, $275m for rubble clearance" (Axios). The New York Times used satellite imagery to show Israeli forces "have fortified positions, built at least a dozen military outposts and moved farther into the territory beyond the withdrawal line" (New York Times). Arab News and The Independent emphasised continuing Palestinian suffering: "Most are sheltering in rodent-infested tent camps" (Arab News) and "the vast majority of Palestinians continue to live in tent camps or ruins" (Independent/AP). Board of Peace officials, quoted by BBC and Times of Israel, framed the plan as a practical next step: Tony Blair said "For the next year, we move from preparation to implementation" (Times of Israel). Qatar's prime minister told The Times of Israel that Israel is the main obstacle: "he is the biggest obstacle right now in progressing this peace plan" (Times of Israel). The outlets agree on the plan's scale and the gaps between pledges and deliveries: BBC reported "$18bn pledged but only $280m handed over so far" (BBC). Differences are mostly about responsibility: Israeli actions and political timing (emphasised by New York Times, Arab News) versus donor shortfalls and technical sequencing (emphasised by Axios, Board spokespeople). Read Axios for the plan's line‑item detail and the New York Times for evidence of expanded Israeli control; read Arab News, The New Arab and Al Jazeera for ground-level accounts of ongoing civilian hardship.

Go deeper

• What would trigger deployment of the International Stabilization Force?
• How would the NCAG take control of crossings while Israeli forces remain in Gaza?

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