What's happened
Recent studies and surveys show that HIV prevention and testing supplies, including PrEP and rapid tests, are running low across multiple regions. Lockdowns on funding and disrupted supply chains have intensified stockouts, risking reversals in years of progress against the HIV epidemic. Actions from donors and manufacturers are now critical to restoring access.
What's behind the headline?
Critical analysis
- The situation is evolving toward a supply-constrained reality that threatens near-term gains in HIV prevention. Funding gaps have a direct impact on commodity availability, which in turn affects testing and PrEP uptake. This creates a domino effect: fewer tests lead to late diagnoses, and interrupted PrEP regimes raise infection risk.
- Donor policies and global funding levels will determine whether generics can rapidly scale and reach lower-income markets. If price reductions fail to materialise quickly, access will remain uneven, widening disparities between regions.
- The most significant driver appears to be financing volatility rather than a lack of technological efficacy. Lenacapavir offers a potential game-changer for prevention, but price and manufacturing access will decide whether it reduces inequities or amplifies them.
Forecast: Without a rapid stabilisation of funding and supply chains, expect ongoing stockouts to persist through 2027, with potential resurgences in new infections in high-burden regions. Strengthening supply forecasting and regional procurement could blunt some of the immediate risks.
How we got here
A combination of funding cuts in 2025 and ongoing supply-chain fragilities has strained HIV prevention programmes. The Lancet Global Health study highlights declines in PrEP use and testing in 2024, while IPPF reporting points to widespread stockouts in 2026, underscoring the fragility of delivery networks across regions.
Our analysis
Bloomberg reports a 2024-2026 decline in HIV prevention service use and PrEP uptake; The Guardian details IPPF-member stockouts and testing gaps; Al Jazeera discusses lenacapavir access and pricing dynamics. Together, they depict a global picture where funding uncertainty directly translates into reduced access to prevention tools and diagnostics.
Go deeper
- Will donors accelerate funding to stabilize supply chains?
- How quickly can generic lenacapavir reach low- and middle-income countries at scale?
- What measures are the most effective right now to prevent a rebound in infections?