What's happened
The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint as Iran’s blockade pressures oil markets. Gulf states are accelerating pipeline projects to reroute crude to Fujairah and Turkish ports, aiming to reduce reliance on Hormuz. Iraq, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others say new routes will begin diverting millions of barrels daily within the next few years, though pipelines remain vulnerable to attacks.
What's behind the headline?
Critical analysis
- The headline belies the complexity: pipelines do not replace Hormuz but act as hedges against disruption. While capacity could rise to 14 million bpd by 2028, geopolitical risk remains high as Iran and Houthi forces threaten loading facilities and terminals.
- The push reflects a broader shift toward diversified chokepoints, which could stabilise prices but also invite new flashpoints as states vie for leverage.
- Readers should watch for actual capacity growth vs. announced timelines; mid-2027 remains a more realistic target for Fujairah expansion.
- The economic impact is twofold: greater resilience for Gulf exporters but potential disruption costs for importers reliant on multiple routes.
How we got here
The war over Iran’s blockade has spurred Gulf states to pursue multiple export routes beyond Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has already built the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while UAE is expanding capacity to Fujairah. Iraq is exploring Basra-to-Ceyhan routes; Turkey, Syria, and other nodes are under consideration to alleviate Hormuz dependence.
Our analysis
AP News and Independent report similar trajectories, noting the East-West pipeline and Fujairah expansion as central hedges. CNBC highlights continued vulnerability of all routes to attacks. Quotes emphasize Gulf states’ intent to diversify away from Hormuz, while experts warn that pipelines are not a complete substitute for sea lanes.
Go deeper
- What new routes are most likely to shift oil flows in the next year?
- How might tensions with Iran affect pipeline security and timelines?
- Which country will benefit most from diversified export routes and why?
More on these topics
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Houthis
The Houthi movement, officially called Ansar Allah and colloquially simply Houthis, is an Islamic political and armed movement that emerged from Sa'dah in northern Yemen in the 1990s.
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Syria - Country in the Middle East
Syria, officially the Syrian Arab Republic, is a country in Western Asia, bordering Lebanon to the southwest, the Mediterranean Sea to the west, Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the south, and Israel to the southwest.
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Gulf of Oman - Gulf
The Gulf of Oman or Sea of Oman, also known as Makran, is a gulf that connects the Arabian Sea with the Strait of Hormuz, which then runs to the Persian Gulf.
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Iraq - Country in the Middle East
Iraq, officially the Republic of Iraq, is a country in Western Asia, bordered by Turkey to the north, Iran to the east, Kuwait to the southeast, Saudi Arabia to the south, Jordan to the southwest and Syria to the west.
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Basra - Capital of Basra Governorate, in southern Iraq
Basra (Arabic: ٱلْبَصْرَة, romanized: al-Baṣrah) or Basrah is a port city in southern Iraq. It is the capital of the eponymous Basra Governorate, as well as the third largest city in Iraq overall, behind Baghdad and Mosul. Located near the Ira
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Iran (Islamic Republic of Iran) - Country in the Middle East
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Yemen - Country in the Middle East
Yemen, officially the Republic of Yemen, is a country at the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula in Western Asia. It is the second-largest Arab sovereign state in the peninsula, occupying 527,970 square kilometres.
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Yanbu - City in Saudi Arabia
Yanbu, also known simply as Yambu or Yenbo, is a city in the Al Madinah Province of western Saudi Arabia. It is approximately 300 kilometers northwest of Jeddah. The population is 222,360.
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Strait of Hormuz - Strait
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United Arab Emirates - Country in the Middle East
The United Arab Emirates, sometimes simply called the Emirates, is a sovereign state in Western Asia at the northeast end of the Arabian Peninsula on the Persian Gulf, bordering Oman to the east and Saudi Arabia to the south and west, as well as sharing m
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Ceyhan - City in Turkey
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Goldman Sachs - Investment banking company
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Red Sea - Inlet
The Red Sea is a seawater inlet of the Indian Ocean, lying between Africa and Asia. The connection to the ocean is in the south through the Bab el Mandeb strait and the Gulf of Aden.
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Suez Canal - Geographical feature
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Saudi Arabia - Country in the Middle East
Saudi Arabia, officially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a country in Western Asia constituting the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula.
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Mediterranean Sea - Sea
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Abqaiq - Saudi Aramco gated community
Abqaiq (Arabic: بقيق, romanized: Biqayq) is a city in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, located in the desert 60 km southwest of the Dhahran-Dammam-Khobar metropolitan area, and north of the Rub' al-Khali, the second largest sand desert in the wor