Fighting widens in northern Ethiopia

What's happened

Fighting in northern Ethiopia has resumed after the TPLF and six armed groups formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. Tigrayan fighters have seized Mekelle airport and other towns, federal forces and allied units have pushed into several areas, hospitals report surges in wounded and residents report road and internet disruptions. Eritrea denies supporting rebels; accusations of cross-border involvement are fueling regional tensions.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening now

• Fighting has expanded beyond Tigray into neighbouring Afar and Amhara provinces as the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival has mobilised across multiple fronts.
• Federal forces are mounting counter‑operations while local militias such as the Tigray Peace Force are consolidating control in reclaimed towns.

Drivers and strategic logic

• The alliance has converted political opposition into coordinated military pressure. It will force the federal military to fight on several fronts simultaneously, stretching logistics and air assets.
• Control of airports and roads shows the alliance is targeting supply and transport nodes to choke federal movement and economic lifelines.

Regional escalation risk

• Reports that Eritrean personnel have entered towns near the border and that Ethiopian drones have targeted cross‑border movements will increase the risk that the conflict will draw in neighbouring states.
• Eritrea has publicly denied backing the TPLF; those denials will not remove the operational pressure that cross‑border troop movements create on Addis Ababa.

Humanitarian and economic impact

• Disrupted roads, internet blackouts and suspended flights will hinder humanitarian access and push food and fuel prices higher in affected towns.
• Hospitals reporting surges in wounded will strain already fragile health services and will force aid agencies to reroute resources.

Forecast — likely next steps

• The federal government will intensify air and drone strikes to blunt alliance advances and protect key transport corridors.
• The alliance will attempt to hold captured airports and towns to sustain operations and to force political negotiations under pressure.
• If cross‑border incidents continue, regional actors will be compelled to take clearer positions, which will increase the chance of wider regional involvement.

Bottom line

This conflict has shifted from a regional flare‑up to a multi‑front campaign. It will increase civilian displacement, disrupt trade routes and raise the risk of neighbouring states becoming directly involved.

How we got here

A 2022 Pretoria agreement halted a two-year war between the federal government and the TPLF. The TPLF later joined a seven-group alliance aiming to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Longstanding disputes over territory, disarmament and displaced populations have kept tensions high and left the peace deal fragile.

Our analysis

AP News has provided the bulk of frontline reporting, naming Tigray Peace Force commander Ermiyas Ababu and quoting residents in Mekelle and Shire describing withdrawals, curfews and market reopenings. AP reported unverified claims that Eritrean personnel entered Adigrat and Idaga Hamus and cited ACLED analyst Jalale Getachew Birru saying Eritrean troops crossed at Zelambesa and were targeted by Ethiopian drones. AP noted it could not independently verify those movements and that ACLED had not immediately explained its basis. AP also quoted Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel denying Ethiopian fabrications in a post on X. All Africa and Al Jazeera have emphasised the wider political shift: the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival that unites the TPLF, Amhara Fano, the OLA and four smaller groups. All Africa argues the Pretoria peace architecture left core grievances unresolved; Al Jazeera highlights that the alliance has seized local airports and that fighting is spreading into Amhara and Afar. Arab News and BBC placed the developments in regional strategic context, reporting federal accusations that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt could be implicated and quoting Ethiopia’s military leadership asserting external support for rebels. Those outlets also reported MSF and local humanitarian sources noting surges in wounded and mass displacement. Together the sources show consistent on‑the‑ground disruption and sharp disagreement over external involvement; AP is cautious about verification, while regional outlets and analysts treat cross‑border links as a plausible driver of escalation.

Go deeper

• What access will humanitarian agencies have to wounded civilians and displaced people?
• How will Ethiopia’s control of airports affect supply lines and civilian evacuation?
• What response will neighbouring countries make if cross‑border troop movements continue?

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